The Dog That Doesn't Bark

Tim Cavanaugh, over at Reason, literally repeats the same mistake Brian Doherty made a couple years ago. (Both are regulars at Reason, and acquaintances of mine.) Cavanaugh, against the Iraq war, believes the hawks have a built-in advantage because (here he quotes Doherty) time is on their side; the justification for a war gets easier as time passes.

This is nonsense. (If it were true, incidentally, it'd be a pretty good argument for wars, since it suggests they pass the test of time.) The side that has the easier argument is the one whose plan is not followed, the one whose advice is not taken.

Before the Iraq war (and well before Pajama Guy), I told my friends that when we go in, those opposed will have an easy time of it. Why? Because no matter how well it goes, I can guarantee with 100% certainty that many very bad things will happen, both during and after. So those against can simply say "look at all these bad things you caused." Meanwhile, many (perhaps most) of the positive effects of the war won't be provable--those who favor it can't show what horrible things might have happened if we hadn't fought.

(This is not meant as an analogy, but an illustration of the principle. Imagine if the USA and Britain recognized the true threat of Hitler and took him on in 1937. There might have been a bloody war where millions died, and plenty of trouble thereafter. Nevertheless, this action would probably have saved tens of millions of lives. Still, those opposed to the war would to this day be calling the hawks of the time the worst criminals in world history.)

Politically speaking, this rule doesn't merely apply to war. It applies to almost anything. No matter what you do, there will always be serious problems around, so, if you do something--anything--you may be the one blamed. This is why when politicians do something, it's often some small measure that flies below the radar, or perfectly safe pandering to their base, or something in response to a crisis where the people are demanding action, so the cost of doing nothing rises.