What are the odds?
Shortly after 9/11, Warren Buffet said the U.S. would almost certainly be attacked by a nuclear explosion. He just wasn't sure when.
Was he right? I supposed so then and suppose so now. But where do Warren or I get the data to justify the belief?
Richard Lugar claims to know. Just ask 85 experts, then you can say, 30 percent chance of nuclear explosion next 10 years (albeit anywhere in the world, not just the U.S.).
I think my favorite part is this: When I said 30 percent, I was being imprecise. The true, honest to goodness figure is 29.2 percent.
I don't know who knows less about numbers, reporters or experts.
posted by ColumbusGuy @ 12:11 PM
1 Comments:
Nothing's easier than making a general prediction without a time limit. The trouble is, though, that a serious attack on the US, killing a lot more than on 9/11, is a distinct possibility, so you've got to at least try to figure out when, where and how likely to defend against it. (And then suffer the slings and arrows of others when 1) you succeed but at a cost or 2) you fail because no one can perfectly predict the future and your enemies will change tactics anyway.)
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