The Other Shoe

Looks like Chief Justice Rehnquist is ready to resign. Good for him. He's had a nice run and it's time to let loose the grip on power.

This is also good news for Democrats. Replacing Justice O'Connor, who could go either way, gave Bush and the Republicans a solid chance to move the Court toward the right. But if Bush is gonna replace both, the odds that the combo will turn out to be as or more conservative than the originals is only so-so.

More important, having two slots to fill gives Bush cover to appoint his pal, Alberto "Souter" Gonzalez, if he wants. He can match him with a solid conservative and figure the average between them will keep his own side mollified.

In any case, things are likely to get ugly. The Dems are up against it--they'd like to deny Bush anyone he really wants, but the Repubs have 55 votes which, under normal circumstances, should make it all academic. Thus it's up to the Dems to make sure the circumstances aren't normal.

Bonus question: Will Bush also try to appoint a new CJ from within, specifically Scalia or Thomas? If he does, I think it'd be lunacy for the Dems to resist, since 1) they will have one or two much bigger fights on their hands, 2) it's a loser since the Repubs can safely vote for it and 3) as I've stated before, I don't think the CJ, primus inter pares, has that much influence--if anything, being appointed to run things might make Scalia or Thomas more moderate.