Oscar, Oscar, Oscar

The Oscars are upon us, and though I'm not that thrilled with most of the nominees, at least there are some interesting races.

Let's talk about the major awards.

Screenplay: The likely winners are Little Miss Sunshine for original and The Departed for adapted. I liked Little Miss Sunshine a lot, though if I were voting I'm not sure if I'd choose it over The Queen or Pan's Labyrinth. (They're all very different films which shows how silly these awards are.) I would not vote for The Departed. Of the choices available I'd probably pick Little Children (which had something screenwriters are supposed to avoid--over-literary narration that tells you waht characters are thinking).

Director: Martin Scorsese is the odds-on favorite. He may have deserved it for better work in the past, but that's not how things always work out. I'd personally choose Paul Greengrass for United 93, the only director's film in this category not nominated for Best Picture.

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls is a strong favorite. I'm actually not that impressed with the nominees, but I'd probably give it to Adriana Barraza in Babel.

Supporting Actor: This is traditionally the strongest category. Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls seems to be the favorite, even though many note he's not that popular a person in Hollywood. Allan Arkin is a sentimental choice, and I'd guess he's not far behind Murphy. Djimon Hounsou (didn't see Blood Diamond) and Mark Wahlberg probably don't have much chance. Some have suggested Jackie Earle Haley, in a creepy comeback performance, as an interesting dark horse candidate. If I were voting, I'd pick Arkin, even though it's the kind of role that's begging for an award.

Actress: Helen Mirren will win for The Queen, but you already knew that. Some good work here, but I'd probably give it to the only American nominated, Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada. (It may be a supporting role, but this is where she's nominated.)

Actor: Forest Whitaker is a solid frontrunner, though there could be a sentimental vote for Peter O'Toole. (Don't overestimate the Academy's sentiment, though.) DiCaprio may have given two major leading performances last year, but I don't think they'll add up to a win. Some are suggesting Ryan Gosling as an interesting dark horse. As to my pick, I'm at a disadvantage, since I didn't see Whitaker or DiCaprio in their nominated roles. And the other three, O'Toole, Gosling and Will Smith, didn't impress me so much that I feel they deserve a major award. I guess if pressed I'd choose O'Toole.

Best Picture: Now this is interesting. For the first time in years there's no clear leader. In fact, I'd say four of the five pictures nominated had a clear shot. The only one that I can't see winning is Letters From Iwo Jima. Little Miss Sunshine is very well liked, but looks to be in trouble since it's the only choice without a director nomination. The Departed, the favorite if there is one, is the biggest hit and has major names in front of and behind the camera. Babel is the sort of "serious" film that the Academy believes burnishes its rep. And The Queen is a classy project that everyone thinks highly of. If I were voting, I'd choose Little Miss Sunshine.