Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Blowout

Here's the opening of an article about the possibility of a McCain victory:

It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama—and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.

Bigger than Bush's electoral victory? I would hope so. Bush's win was paltry. It all came down to one close state, Ohio. True blowouts, like LBJ, Nixon II and Reagan II, don't depend on one state, or five states, or even ten states.

The piece goes on to say:

McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.

As many as 50? Here are the electoral margins of victory in some non-blowout elections of modern times:

1968: Nixon by 110

1976: Carter by 57

1980: Reagan by 440 (okay, it wasn't close, but I still read leftists claiming it was no blowout)

1992: Clinton by 202

1988: Bush by 315

Winning by 50 or less is a hair's breadth.

I have no idea who will win, or by how much, but since both candidates have odd appeal, it's not hard to imagine that someone could take off and win by more than 100 electoral votes.

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