Slim And None
There's not much point in talking about the election odds, since I think it's over. There are a ton of polls and they all show Obama ahead, most with room to spare. Even if he were ahead only two or three points in all the polls, he'd be the big favorite.
So what's the scenario where McCain can win? You need to make four assumptions, each unlikely. 1) The closer polls have better modeling, so Obama's lead right now is less than 4 points. 2) Obama's get out the vote machine isn't as great as claimed and McCain's is better than expected (this is related to 1, but not quite the same). 3) There'll be a move to McCain at the last second when push comes to shove because the public still has doubts about Obama. 4) There'll be close votes in the swings states, and McCain will win all the big ones (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina) and most of the others and/or he'll take Pennsylvania and only lose a few others.
What are the odds of all this happening? I'd put it at less than 1 in 20. Except perhaps for point 3, however, there's no easy way to check them till after the election.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:16 AM
2 Comments:
5) the Republicans will cheat again and they are better at it then the Democrats
You're probably not familiar with that religious corn pone about a pair of footprints in the sand, God walking with you, but sometimes there is only one set, and the question is, "God, why did you abandon me at those times?" and the answer being "I did not abandon you; those are the times I carried you."
If you want to find the cheating, you're looking, and have been looking, in the wrong direction. Even now, your guy isn't running as the socialist that he is. When he does, and then wins, then you can gloat.
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