Tallies Folly

The polls taken together show Obama with a solid lead. All told, however, they vary greatly. Much of this is due to different modeling, and since no one knows how many Dems and Repubs are gonna show up, there's no way to know which poll is most reliable. You can't really count on previous elections, since they change so much.

Look at the last three. 1996 was boring, everyone knew Clinton was going to win and no one was excited by Dole, so the total number of votes between them was 87 million (considerably lower than the previous, three-way election). Then, in 2000, with a close race for a new president, the total number of voters for Bush and Gore rose to 101 million. That seemed like plenty, but the next election, due to high interest and, I assume, better get-out-the-vote methods, had Bush and Kerry win a combined total of 121 million votes.

With excitement high over this election, there's simply no guessing how many are going to turn up, or what their make-up will be. If only the polls were closer, it could have made for an exciting night.