Rerecriminations

So predictably that I could have written this post before the election (in fact, I have, more than once), the losing party in the last election is claiming they lost because they didn't stick to their principles. Party activists are saying things like "the moderate wing of the Republican Party is dead” and “conservatives were silent when Republican Congressional leaders massively expanded government.”

Of course, there are others--generally not true conservatives--who say, with good reason, that Republicans need to move toward the center if they want to win.

Both are missing the point, or should I say points: 1) Americans are more practical than ideological (especially the large middle who determine elections). 2) Parties have to appeal both inward to excite the base and outward to pick off others. 3) While particular candidates can make a difference, there are overall trends that swamp everything else.

When Republicans did poorly in 2006, a lot of conservatives said it was because they'd been too free-spending. They were fooling themselves. It was because the public was unhappy about Iraq and a few other issues. Spending, if it mattered at all, was way down the list.

In 2008, the big issue was the economy. The public saw a crisis and when that happens, they vote against the party in the White House. (What about the party that runs Congress? I'd bet a good chunk of the voters don't even know who that is.) This issue alone probably accounted for a swing of up to 5% to the generic Democrat Presidential candidate. In fact, some have noted the best thing that ever happened to the Dems is losing in 2004, since we'd still have had the economic disaster but they'd have been blamed instead. (Not to mention we'd have pulled out of Iraq and everything bad the anti-war people claimed had happened actually would have happened.)

With this built-in advantage, Obama just had to make sure he appealed strongly enough to the middle, thus his vague, centrist campaign. (Some conservatives even called it a center-right campaign, since Obama said he'd fight the war on terror better and apparently convinced the public he was the tax cutter.)

Republicans can be as conservative as they want--as long as the economy is improving and the terrorists are kept at bay, the Dems will probably do fine in 2010 and 2012. I admit you never know if some issue, like tax hikes, immigration, crime, health care, gay marriage, etc., will flare up, but overall, there's only so much a party can do by sticking to its principles (or abandoning them) on any given election. If people are generally satisfied, it's hard to get them to vote for change.