Thursday, July 30, 2009

Richard Rivalry

Richard Posner has his doubts about the use of behavioral economics to guide government agencies. He's talking about the rules Obama's regulatory agencies may use to guide and control financial consumrs.

He refers to the theories at Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein in their book Nudge:

Mr. Thaler, whose views are taken seriously by the Obama administration, calls himself a “libertarian paternalist.” But that is an oxymoron. He is a paternalist with a velvet glove—as the agency will be. Through the use of carrot and stick, the agency will steer consumers to those financial products that it thinks best for them, whatever they naïvely think.

I wouldn't say "libertarian paternalist" is an oxymoron. I'd say, instead, pay close attention to which is the adjective and which is the noun. Thaler can modify it however he likes, he's still a paternalist.

Thaler responds people make mistakes and regularly use experts to help them. Why shouldn't the government, which is admittedly imperfect itself, guide regular folks?

The goal of the Nudge agenda [...] was to create decision-making environments in which it is easier for error-prone human decision makers to choose well. The Agency proposed by the administration is a good example of this kind of thinking. Even imperfect experts can help us achieve better outcomes, just as imperfect judges can help us enforce the law fairly.

I don't think the judge analogy works. The courts are needed after the fact when the system, which works smoothly most of the time, breaks down. That's when you need some referee which the government has the authority to supply. What Thaler wants to do is to stop problems before they occur, sometimes offering freedom (though less than you had before) or sometimes creating rules that will simply prevent greater choice.

Yes, private citizens make mistakes, and government officials make mistakes. But government mistakes can be systematic. They can also be heavily influenced by politics. Add up all the information those "ignorant" citizens have and it can be a lot more than the government experts possess. Some people need to make mistakes--that's how we learn--and it's not nearly as costly if the mistakes are bottom-up as top-down.

Bad choices freely made by private citizens can cause plenty of trouble, to be sure, but millions of people at ground level arriving at their own decisions is a feature of the system, not a flaw.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Governments will always seek to impose behavioral changes on its constituents (and the ones that say they won't are probably the worst because they either hide it or are fooling themselves). The Goal of the Nudge Agenda is not (or should not be ) to find some way to get to the "right" decision- that determination will constantly change based on whose in power, prevalence or absence of ideological or superstitious belief systems, passage of time, style, fickleness etc... Instead its goal is allow the government to pursue its aims in a less coercive manner. (Which is a wonderful theory of course- in real life I'm sure bureaucrats would tired of nudging and eventually switch rule-based coercion eventually)

6:50 AM, July 30, 2009  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

The key is what do Thaler and Sunstein mean when they say the government will "guide" the average citizen? I appreciate guidance that is offered without obligation or coercion to see that the guidance is followed. I'm dealing with my insurance company right now after a wind storm caused considerable damage to our home. They offered me a guide to trustworthy roofers in my area - and I really appreciate it. But if they had said you must use one of these roofers or we will not pay on your claim, I would resent it. This despitethe fact that I will probably use one of the roofers they recommend anyway, as I have no better insight into whom I should hire.

If Obamacare were primarily a program to get citizens better information on how to get health care and how to save money on health care, I would be in favor of the program. I suspect, however, that the ultimate program will be a bit more than a "nudge" in the direction of how I will be obligated to obtain health care.

11:24 AM, July 30, 2009  

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