This Gallup poll intrigues me. It shows, from 1964 to the present, the belief among Americans that race relations can be worked out. The reason it's being talked about today is the bump of hope Obama brought has mostly dissipated. But that was to be expected.
What interests me is the general trend. Starting in the year of the Civil Rights Act Of 1964, there was a long slide all the way into the 90s from 55% to 41% positive. (I'm ignoring the short term dip due to the O.J. trial). This despite unquestionable progress (objectively speaking--I understand people may not have felt it was happening, but if nothing else, old, unapologetic racists were dying while kids were being raised to hate racism; the old question was should we discriminate against minorities, the new question was should we treat everyone equally or officially discriminate in their favor).
I don't know why this happened. Perhaps it was because the strides made by the civil rights movement from 1945 to 1964 were steady and obvious and brought along a growing part of the population, and by their greatest achievement things peaked. But after getting most of the laws they'd been fighting for passed, perhaps blacks saw they still had major problems and whites felt that blacks were only getting more radical and demanding. It's not unlike a slow play out of the disillusionment the poll shows after the high of Obama's election.
Yet even if that's the case, why was there a reversal of the trend some time in the 90s, and thus a steady rise in hope for at least a decade? That I have no easy answer for.
A version of the revolution in rising expectations? -i.e. people don't complain so much when they are kept down but as they progress and become empowered (sorry for the Newspeak- I can't think of the real English words right now), they get impatient that more change isn't happening and now have some power and voice to try out. Think of emancipated serfs under the czar and later the perestroika'd communards under Gorbachev.
ReplyDeleteThe "long slide" (which takes up more than half of the graph) is based on exactly two data points: one in 1964 and one in 1993. If there were actually points in between documenting a gradual slide, or even a sudden slide at some point (e.g., between 1964 and 1968) I would believe it.
ReplyDeleteBut I think a more likely explanation is that when the question "Will a solution to America's race-relations problem eventually be worked out?" was asked to people in 1964, they heard a very different question than when people in 1993 heard it. In 1964, that question was probably interpreted as, "Will Negroes someday be allowed to eat in restaurants, to vote freely, to attend any college they can qualify for, and to be safe from racial violence?" And the 55% who said "yes" were right.
In 1993 the question was interpreted as, "Will resentments and hostilities between the races vanish, and a complete integration of American culture take place?" And the 44% who said "Yes" were optimists.
But from the mid-1990s until the present day, the cultural divide in America had solidified. Most importantly, what we now call the "blue state" culture had solidified into its own culture with its own rules. It is very significant that the rules of political correctness have not been altered for almost two decades now, and neither have the goals of ending racism. It is generally agreed that if racial violence and financial discrmination vanishes, and yet 10% of America continue to urge their children not to marry other races, then the race problem has not been solved. Such a "bar" for success would have been unthinkable to most Americans in 1964.
In other words, I don't think that the biggest change was affirmative action, since (according to its advocates) that is simply a new way of addressing public discrimination. I think the biggest change is that the bar has been raised: only a change in internal attitudes and social integration counts as a victory.
In summary: The drop from 1964 to 1993 in the survey is because the bar was raised. The gradual rise from 1993 to 2009 is because the bar remained constant while racial attitudes became more open.
By the way, I suspect that Obama has the potential to affect racial attitudes in HUGE ways, if he chooses to.
ReplyDelete1. Today, he has the good will and loyalty of a huge fraction of liberals and a huge fraction of African Americans. If he were to make a highly publicized speech rejecting, say, affirmative action, it would have a huge and permanent affect on public attitudes.
2. On the flip side, if he were to freak out under pressure and do something really unpleasant, it would make a huge and perhaps permanent impression on the many white Americans who have come to, mostly unconsciously, regard him as the representative of Black Americans (as their greatest success story and as the moral and intellectual epitome of their "race").
I think it's incredibly unlikely that either # 1 or # 2 will happen. I'm just pointing out that if they did, the repercussions would be huge. In other words, he has this power if he choose to use it.
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