Identify Yourself

The latest Gallup Poll shows an uptick in self-identified conservatives and a drop in self-identified liberals. At present, 40% say they're conservative, 36% say they're moderate and 20% say they're liberal.

This may mean something in the short run (including the elections coming soon), but what's most impressive is how little movement there's been over the years. Starting in 1992, "conservative" has bounced around from 36% to 40%, moderate from 43% to 36% and liberal from 16 to 22%.

If there's been any trend over the years, I'd say there's a slight movement toward polarization in the last 8 years, as moderates have dropped and conservative and liberals have risen. (The Cato people say libertarians are on the rise.)

Pundits sometimes make too much of these numbers. The percentage of conservatives is consistently close to double that of liberals. But many "conservatives" vote Democrat. Furthermore, what is a conservative? I suppose a while ago most conservatives opposed gay civil unions, now I believe most support them. Maybe in a few decades conservatives will support gay marriage.

The numbers still matter, since the country is so close in red versus blue that even a slight uptick can make a difference. But I'd still say the main story is about how stable the electorate is.

(By the way, Rassmussen, which polls likely voters, say the public trusts Repubs more than Dems on the top ten issues. This is significant--especially the trend, since you can't always be sure of the absolute numbers--but it'd be a lot more significant if this were 2010, since these numbers can be volatile.)