"You couldn’t have a starker contrast between the multiple layers of checks and balances [at ‘60 Minutes’] and a guy sitting in his living room in his pajamas writing.”
I wonder if you could figure the actual odds of this pick- - he picked that the particular batter would hit a HR -OK the guy has minor league stats indicating HRs/per AB and the pitcher and the park and weather could all be measured. -he picked the inning (what is the probability the batter would get an AB in the 5th inning- I suppose there is historical analysis for baseball indicating how often the #X hitter in the lineup comes to the plate in the 5th inning) -he picked the count (what is the probability the count would even go to 3-1 and then the probability that he would hit the next pitch out) -he picked the location of the ball (of all home runs, how many go in the 2d deck)(did he pick the part of the field too- my audio was bad).
If Math Spoiler was a Math major, maybe he/she could enlighten us
How To Make A 1,000,000-to-1 Prediction:
ReplyDelete1. Make a lot of predictions; in fact, over the years, make a million predictions.
2. By the laws of probability, one of them will eventually be correct.
BTW, this worked for a lot of those Nostradamus types, too.
The monkeys writing Shakespeare hypothesis.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if you could figure the actual odds of this pick-
- he picked that the particular batter would hit a HR -OK the guy has minor league stats indicating HRs/per AB and the pitcher and the park and weather could all be measured.
-he picked the inning (what is the probability the batter would get an AB in the 5th inning- I suppose there is historical analysis for baseball indicating how often the #X hitter in the lineup comes to the plate in the 5th inning)
-he picked the count (what is the probability the count would even go to 3-1 and then the probability that he would hit the next pitch out)
-he picked the location of the ball (of all home runs, how many go in the 2d deck)(did he pick the part of the field too- my audio was bad).
If Math Spoiler was a Math major, maybe he/she could enlighten us