Ups And Downs
The latest AP poll shows a solid rise in support for Obama over the last month from 50% to 56%. I could imagine a slight rise while nothing that great is happening, but this doesn't quite pass the smell test. Even fishier, his disapproval dropped from 49% to 39%. Even if these numbers are correct taking into account the margin of error, then I'd guess last month the error hurt him and this month the error helped him.
Just to compare, I checked Gallup's three-day tracking poll, and at 50%-43%, Obama was doing as bad as ever.
My point is not that any particular poll is right or wrong, but that you have to look at the whole picture: numerous polls, what those polls are actually measuring, and what the trends are over time. Unfortunately, too many people who have a point to make will seize on any single number that tells them what they want to hear.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:25 AM
2 Comments:
No other poll showing up at Real clear politics or Pollster.com show a similar rise in president Obama's job approval, so for now I'd call the AP poll an outlier. That said, Obama's approval rating really isn;t that low, considering continued rising unemployment and the failure so far to do anything major he promised in his campaign. Most presidents in bad economic times drop into the 40s in job approval.
But even false polls can have an effect. Politicians can see one and change their vote. Worse are badly done polls, like the New York Times on health care, which is so poorly worded about half the public say it doesn't know what to think.
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