The Floor
President Obama's job approval has been dropping since he took office, but that's not unusual. After the honeymoon, reality sets in, and unless you do something really positive, you sink.
He's still generally popular--more popular than most of his programs, in fact. Polls have him above 50%, though not by much.
What I wonder (and I assume the White House wonders) is has he hit a floor. As long as nothing disastrous happens, have his numbers stabilized? Or, as long as the public isn't that thrilled with how things are going, will he continue to drift downward? (Of course, if the public starts feeling happier, he can also drift upward.)
The other question are about the internals. If 51% support you, but only 20% think you're the bees knees while 40% hate your guts, that's not a good place to be.
In any case, the White House can't be thrilled that he's sunk this low, but, aware of recent history, they know it can get a lot worse.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:22 AM
4 Comments:
If the economy clearly rebounds, he'll easily go up. I don't think anyone blames him for any wars right now, either. In general, a lot of the media supports him, which makes it hard for him to sink considerably lower.
Pollster.com has Obama job approval below 50% a smidge for the first time, I think, this Monday. Pollster.com is an amalgam of many polls (like Real Clear Politics), and I think it is of some note to break the 50% barrier. of course, BHO won with only 53% of the vote, so it is not a massive decline - not an indication that the people who voted for Obama have abandoned him.
It really comes down to the economy and specifically the unemployment numbers. The 3rd quarter reprieve from declining GNP was financed by Gov't bailouts - everyone knows that. The Stock Market surge reflects the facts that 1) the market dropped too steeply in the first place in response to the credit crunch, 2) the Gov't pumped lots of money into the system, and 3) companies' bottom lines look better when they cut costs by firing lots of employees. But that can't last, and if inflation is the next bugaboo, I think the double dip recession is a real possibility.
Still, 2012 is a long way away, and there is plenty of time for President Obama to take credit for the irresistable business cycle which could have the economy humming by 2011. I would still count on a second term.
Pollster.com includes Rasmussen, who uses likely voters and regularly has numbers below 50%. Of course, it's the trend that counts, not any particular number (though the 50% mark is a major pscyhological barrier).
Obama won with 53% of the vote, true, but 1) that's actually pretty impressive, being the highest percentage in 20 years, and 2) you can approve of someone in office without having voted for him.
I don't think too many Americans blame Obama for the economy--they understand it was bad when he got here (though that excuse gets tougher to pull off with each month). I think they're troubled by what they see as more tax-and-spend policy, which they've never liked, and done at a time when it's even less fitting than usual. Plus an unprecedented attempt at a government takeover of much of our economy. Of course, if the numbers improved enough, all would be forgiven.
Which is why I think it's too early to talk about 2010. I wouldn't even bother with 2012.
Job Approval numbers in the first year are somewhat like polls asking whose going to win the World Series in May. That being said, Obama had farther to fall due to inflated poll numbers from last year based on - a vague feelgood message which inevitably sinks when real world decisions have to be made (if the economy had been great) and the comparison to rampant unpopularity of the last occupant (his supporters were running from him) which comparison fades over time. A circa 50% approval rating wit unemployment popping 10% is surprisingly high. I would agree that he might be 5-10 points higher if they had let that whole health care thing slide away but of course the aim of a presidency is not to get high approval ratings (at least in the short term) so we'll see
High approval ratings like peace prizes and awards are so much fluff when compared with what is actually done with them. If approval ratings do down every time you make a tough decision, then they weren't a very useful measure to begin with.
Post a Comment
<< Home