Nods And Nodding Off

I haven't written much about the Oscar noms because there seem to be so many locks. It's hard to believe Jeff Bridges, Mo'Nique and Christoph Waltz (there's a 1, 2, 3) won't walk away with acting awards. But I suppose there are still a few major categories that may surprise.

For Best Actress, it's hard to go against Sandra Bullock. She's just one step away from being a lock like those names above. Her greatest fear is Academy members will vote for Meryl Streep as a reflex.

For Best Adapted Screenplay, Up In The Air has the edge, but there's a real battle in Original Screeplay between two war films, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. (And when two similar films fight it out, they can split the vote and allow a third name to come through.)

For Best Foreign Language Film it's hard to go against The White Ribbon. However, this category has become much harder to call since the Academy changed the rules and said you can't vote unless you've actually seen all five films.

For Best Animated Featured (a category that should be gotten rid off--let's not ghettoize animation), how can Up lose? It's the only one also nominated for Best Picture.

For Best Director, you gotta go with Kathryn Bigelow, who came out of nowhere with The Hurt Locker. Her ex, James Cameron, would normally get it, but the story of her small film seems more amazing.

What's most interesting, and will give the whole night an air of mystery, is Best Picture. In fact, the category is more open than it's been in years. If nothing else, ten nominees promises new kinds of vote splits. Even better, there are two titles that each have an equal chance--Avatar, the biggest hit of all time, and The Hurt Locker, the little film that could. And if they're close in votes, perhaps a third title, like Up In The Air or Inglourious Basterds, could sneak through. If you're going to have one open category, this is the one.