Predictable

The headline from Michael Barone's column says it all: "House Democrats head for a thumping at the polls." Indeed, many pieces are saying the Dems are in trouble. And I don't doubt that's what the latest numbers are suggesting. Still, it's early. Three months is plenty of time for people to change their minds. All it takes is a shift of a few points.

The question that interests me is how does the widespread notion of an imminent rout affect things. There are arguments for all sides.

#1: No effect. Most people are out of the loop, not paying close attention to the elections (and they shouldn't--they have lives), so the Barones of the world can make predictions to their heart's content without changing anything. And those who keeps up on the races can think for themselves, and aren't going to change their votes based on what Michael Barone or Nate Silver write.

#2: Helps Repubs. The drumbeat of disaster for Dems leads to a defeatist attitude. Voters for the Repubs are energized while the Dems stay home, and those on the edge are happy to jump on the bandwagon. It also helps the money flow toward Repubs, as people want to back winners.

#3: Helps Dems. Repubs start thinking it's a lock and get complacent, while Dems realize they need to get busy. Also, creates unrealistic expectations, so when the Repubs do well, but don't take over, it's a letdown.