I Can't Make Up My Mind About This
A number of pundits look at polls of Obama versus Romney or other Republicans and say if the President is under 50%, he's in trouble, even if he leads. The argument is everyone already knows what they think of the President so if they don't support him by now, they'll break against him. They claim this has been proved in previous elections.
Maybe it works sometimes, but as a rule, as far as I can tell, it's nonsense. I've watched politics long enough to see if you're ahead in every poll 47% to 42%, you're probably going to win. Yet no matter how many times the incumbent rule is disproved, certain "experts" keep it alive.
The real question is why are people undecided. Is it because they hate the incumbent and are waiting to make sure the challenger isn't too crazy? Or because they don't like either candidate? Or because they don't pay attention to politics and wait till the last second to decide anything, based on flawed information and prejudices? Each election makes its own rules. The only rule you need to follow is try to be ahead in the polls.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:12 AM
3 Comments:
My working theory this year is that people are not living and dying on politics to the same extent as in prior years and don't view a presidential preference as a particularly relevant decision. The race so far has engaged a narrower group of ideologue-types (both as voters and as observers from the other team) and has just turned the whole mass of normal citizens off
Just saw a headline for "Santorum surge"
Ick.
Even though the results of the election have a real impact on people's lives, the average person right now has too many problems to concentrate on the political wrangling. They know they are apprehensive and if a majority are still apprehensive come October/Nov., President Obama may very well lose, for no ideological reason - just because people will once again want a change. That could hurt Republicans hold on the House, too, though I think the Republicans are destined to gain control of the Senate (the numbers are stacked in their favor).
Polls are important for the primaries. The primaries reflect the desires of the politically active. The Santorum surge is the last gasp of party angst (imo). Romney is going to win in the end. But the race against Obama will be close all the way to the end, and will be determined either by the economy (if it's worse, Romney wins) or who runs the best/worst campaign, with the edge going to the incumbent.
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