Path Math
With Romney now leading in an average of national polls, some have asked me why I still expect the President to be reelected. Obviously things can change, but let's say any change is a coin flip (some say it isn't--that undecideds trend to the challenger--but that remains to be seen) and let's assume the polls are correct and the numbers will remain the same over the next several weeks.
Let me draw your attention to 2004. President Bush won that election with a 2.4% edge in the popular vote, bigger than Romney's edge over Obama. Yet he barely took the electoral college, 286 to 251 (with one faithless elector going to John Edwards). Ohio was the state that put him over the top, with a lead of less than 120,000 votes out of 5.6 million. In other words, Republicans don't have much room for error, and certain states pretty much have to go their way or they can't win.
It's true the College numbers have changed slightly in Republican's favor since the census, but much of that is counteracted by New Mexico, which Bush won but is now solidly in the Democrat's column.
So it's not the national polls, it's the state polls. The big swing states become must-wins for Romney. Yes, he's got an excellent chance of taking Florida and North Carolina, but Virginia is on the edge and he's losing Ohio. It's just about impossible for Romney to lose Virginia and Ohio and take the Presidency. What if he only loses Ohio? It's still highly unlikely. That would mean he'd have to run the board of every other close state, including Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa.
What about the possibility of Romney winning a surprise state, such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania? It's true, any one of those states (especially Pennsylvania) could make up for the loss of Ohio, but really, if the polls are far off enough that Romney takes one or more of these, then it's pretty much a sign that Ohio will go for Romney.
Which is why I keep my eye on Ohio. As long as the signs there point to Obama, they also point to another four years.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:10 AM
4 Comments:
Thanks for watching.
SWMBCg, etc.
The margin of error even in the swing states are the channel surfers. So the conventionblip for Obama and the first debate blip for Romney will likely be meaningless and this election will turn more on the two upcoming debates and whatever happens in the world in the next three weeks. (You'll have to take my word but this is what said at the beginning of this Presidential campaign back in 2009-10). More debate lassitude kills Obama. Continuing better numbers (and crazy attacks on them) hurt Romney.
God knows what will happen if Bibi sends a blitz into Iran on Halloween
You're out there, Columbus Guy, why don't you do the watching for us?
ColumbusGuy is always out there. Wherever there is injustice, wherever there is a child going to bed hungry, wherever there is a public sector pension that might not be paid . . .
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