Friday, September 19, 2014

Wave

Some people think 2014 may be a "wave" election, where one party--in this case, the GOP--makes large gains.  Others say the Republicans will do well (no one thinks they won't win some seats), but it won't be a wave.

They're both right.  Just what makes a wave is in the eye of the beholder.  Okay, sometimes it's so obvious no one can deny it (leftist publications denied Reagan won a landslide in 1980, but they shut up after 1984), but right now, for instance, some are saying the Republicans could take back the Senate and it still won't be a wave.  Well, I guess that'd be good enough until the real wave comes along.

There's little question the Republicans are well positioned compared to, say, 2012. (Then again, some believed things were looking good for the GOP in 2012.)  But when it comes to the Senate, which is really what we're talking about, since the House will remain Republican and the White House isn't in play, we're talking about state by state races, each one different.  There are only 36 (not a typo) races and only about a third are truly in play, so with such a small sample, it'd be easy for a wave to fall apart before it hits the shore.  Bad candidates, foot-in-mouth disease, scandals, new issues and peculiar state practices come into play much more than they would with the larger number of seats in House elections.

Let's say it's time for a wave.  That might simply mean that Republicans will receive a few percentage points more than usual.  Okay, but that could translate to four net seats in the Senate, or six, or eight, all depending on other factors. So let's say bye-bye to the wave and, if we must, come up with some better metaphor.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

This reminds me of the tsunami that was supposed to hit Hawaii a few years back after a (South American Pacific Coast?)earthquake- everyone was paying attention (well we were due to family members, alarms went off and cable news screechers were being their usual reasonable selves. The tsunami did hit as scheduled and researchers reported waves were I believe 6-12ninches higher than usual for an hour or so. (I do remember the anorak-clad reporter basking in the sun but trying to get excited about "potentially accelerated erosion".

Sort of think 2014 will be like that wave and everyone will claim victory and move on to Hillary versus the dwarfs

4:00 AM, September 19, 2014  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only Democrats who have won the Presidency in the past 40 years were dwarfs, so it looks like Hillary's in trouble.

9:42 AM, September 19, 2014  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So there apparently.

3:11 PM, September 19, 2014  

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