Sexy Issue

[Note: I wrote this the day the case was argued.  Since then, I've heard others make similar claims.  So if you've heard it before, all I can say is you're about to hear it again.]

Obergefell v. Hodges was argued earlier this week before the Supreme Court.  The question is are states, under the Fourteenth Amendment, required to license same-sex marriages, and also are they required to recognize such marriages from other states.  Pundits are trying to read the tea leaves, and many believe Justice Kennedy will be the one to decide.  Perhaps the Court will punt, perhaps they'll go all the way.  I wouldn't presume to know.  I'm pretty sure same-sex marriage is the future, and I think the Justices know that, but I don't know if that knowledge will affect the case.

One thing I do know is many conservative are outraged at the thought the Court will find that there's a right for same-sex marriage.  To quote, for instance, the editors on National Review Online:

If the Supreme Court rules that all state governments must recognize same-sex unions as marriages, it will not just be saying that the view that marriage should be defined in law as the union of a man and a woman is wrong—and saying that without any clear constitutional warrant. It will be officially declaring that this view is irrational, in opposition to the country’s fundamental principles, and, quite possibly, bigoted. The Court should refrain from taking that reckless step.

 

{...]

 

When the Court ruled in 2013 that the federal government could not define marriage as the union of a man and a woman for the purposes of its own programs, Justice Kennedy’s opinion was full of references to the prerogatives of the states. If the Court now rules that states do not have the authority to define marriage as the union of a man and a woman, either, it will be clear that those references were for show, and that the Constitution is the plaything of a willful Court.

 

They're not happy, but I wonder if such a ruling wouldn't be good for conservatives.  For years the Republicans used (or tried to use) gay marriage as a wedge issue.  Now that it's clear a solid majority support same-sex marriage, and that we're not going back, the issue can be used against the GOP.

 

If the Supreme Court declares same-sex marriage is a right, it will mostly take this out of the public arena.  Yes, some of the conservative base strongly enough opposes the idea that certain candidates will still make a big deal of their opposition, and might even say they support a Constitutional Amendment to overturn the decision. (Attempting to pass such an Amendment would be quixotic, but the funny thing is if people knew what was happening today, they might have passed it when Bill Clinton was President.) But most of the candidates, especially once there's a general election, can simply say that, regardless of their personal feelings, the Court has spoken and it's our duty to follow the law.