Delegate math is hard

. . . if Trump [satisfies a bunch of conditions] the real estate mogul would get about 58 percent of the delegates. 

But if Trump [satisfies a bunch of other conditions] Trump earns roughly 44 percent of those delegates. 

Both are wins, but in the second scenario Trump gets about 14 percent fewer delegates even though his vote total remains the same.

And this from a "data geek."