It Won't Be Long

When it comes to elections, I usually say don't look at the polls until after Labor Day, since that's when the public truly starts to pay attention.  But I'm not sure if it applies to this Presidential race.  Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both well known and not well liked.  People have a pretty good idea about them.  And with the exception of a short period during the Republican National Convention, Clinton has held a solid lead in the polls for months.

So what chance does Donald have?  It's not impossible, but victory seems unlikely.  My guess is that Hillary is happy to be running against Trump.  She has obvious weaknesses and a conventional Republican would be able to take advantage of them, but Trump is always about Trump, which makes it harder for him to capitalize. (What other candidate--the day after his official nomination--would do something like attack Ted Cruz and say he doesn't want his support anyway?)

Trump's big chance will be in the debates.  Clinton is seasoned, but lackluster, while he's explosive and unpredictable.  If he's properly prepared (a big if) and can keep it together (a bigger if), perhaps he can surprise people who think he's dangerous or insane or a fascist, and get them to say maybe he's not so bad..

Some claim the polls are tightening.  Perhaps, though at present it seems like normal drift--I need to see significant change in a number of polls for a couple weeks before I'm convinced. In any case, Hillary is solidly ahead at present, by 4 points or so.  There was a time that may not have seemed that impressive, but these days you're not going to end up much better.  The last popular vote landslide was Reagan in 1984.  Since then no one's won by over 10% and these days a gap of under 5% seems to be the new normal.

Some Trump fans say the polls systematically undercount Trump voters. While this is possible, I see no strong evidence for it.  He does excite certain voters, such as the white working class, but he turns off plenty more, such as college educated suburban whites.  And it's not like the polls undercounted him during the primary season.  I think the argument is better that the polls undercount Clinton's support.

For one thing, she's got the most sophisticated get-out-the-vote apparatus any campaign has ever known (while Trump has a Twitter account). Second, undecided, last-second voters tend to go for safety--the devil they know--and that's Hillary. Third, the last Presidential election undercounted President Obama's support quite a bit (and remember this was the second-term, bloom-off-the-rose Obama).  Also, polls suggest the high numbers that third party candidates Johnson and Stein receive are most likely hurting Clinton, and there's a reasonable chance their support will go down when partisans come home.

And even if the polls are close--even if Trump has a slight lead--Clinton should still be the favorite.  To win, Trump will probably need to take every state Romney took, and at present he's behind in a few of them.  Then he'll probably need to take the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.  And if he can manage all that, he'll still need to pick up another blue state.

In other words, Trump--indeed, any Republican running for President--has a lot more hoops to jump through than a Democrat.  You need 270 Electoral votes to win, and in the last quarter century the lowest a Democrat got was 251.  The vast majority of tossups have to go to Trump or he loses.

So while it's still a race worth watching, you should be happy if you're a Hillary fan.