I didn't think I was going to write about politics any more, but I can't resist looking at the interactive Electoral Map to see how things might work out. Not that I have much to add to what you can hear elsewhere. And anyway, it's who gets the votes that matters--the rest is chatter.
Looking at the map, it's clear Trump is in trouble (or if you'd rather, Clinton is in good shape). Not that he can't win if the vote is close, but the path is narrow. There are about ten swing states and he's got to take most of them. Hillary simply starts out with too many near-certain Electoral votes. Sure, Trump starts with a little over half the 270 votes needs, but Clinton starts with over three-quarters.
Of these states, the ones in Eastern Standard Time will tell us early (especially if you live on the West Coast) what to expect. First, Trump needs to win Florida, Ohio and probably North Carolina to have a chance. Mind you, if he wins these states, he still might lose, but losing any one of them means the night is almost certainly over. (And with Florida a toss-up at best, you can see why the odds are against him.)
If he wins these three states, he'd still probably need to win three or four of the other swing states. The big question is Pennsylvania. The answer is probably Hillary wins--the GOP keeps hoping to take this state, but there are always too many votes in Philadelphia to overcome. If Trump could somehow take it, he'd be looking pretty good--even if he didn't take North Carolina he'd have a fair chance.
So what would Trump then need? The states left are Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire (plus one potential vote in a split Maine). He'd have to take four of them--Arizona would be a must with 11 electoral votes, and then any other three (though he could lose New Hampshire, the least populous, and Nevada and tie). The odds of him winning three of these states is decent, but only so-so for winning four or more. (It's tricky to figure the odds since if he overperforms, it can happen everywhere, and if he underperforms, he could lose them all).
Some have discussed the possibility of McMullin winning Utah (or even less likely, Johnson taking New Mexico). If that happens, it would be possible that neither Clinton nor Trump would get a majority of Electoral votes, and everything would be up for grabs. I'd say there is less than a 1% chance of this, but it sure would be fun.