2020 Vision

With the last election barely over (in fact, it's not quite over yet), people are already looking at 2020.  While I'd say this is about 18 months too soon, the perpetual campaign demands it.

Recently, a friend told me he thought President Trump would easily win a second term. He did not see this as a positive thing.  While it's way too early to guess where we'll be in two years--we at least should know who his opponent will be (and if he himself will be running)--I would suggest that Trump's road to reelection will be bumpy.

Maybe it's because we've gotten used to two-term presidents, so we simply think it's automatic unless something terrible happens.  I think, however, the proper way to look at it is will his coalition hold.  This, after all, is a guy who never polls above 50% nationwide. I know he won without the popular vote, but he seems to have a ceiling, while we don't know if he has a floor.  And even assuming he can get the same votes as last time, it's still a question of turnout, as 2018 showed.

Trump's surprise victory came by tearing down the Blue Wall, taking Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  But those wins were close, and could easily go the other way next time around.  And even if he holds them, there are states he won that are on the verge of flipping, such as Arizona and Florida.  So Trump has got a path to victory, but it's still narrow.

On the other hand, Trump may be helped by the Democrats taking the House, since now he has someone to blame if things don't work out.  Also, all the Dem candidates have significant weaknesses.  Even leaving out their politics, most of the names being mentioned are either old and tired, or young and unproven.

Okay, that's enough from me.  I'll get back to you in a year and a half.