Who knows

I think Pajama Guy has it right. Osama figures if Bush loses, which might happen, he can take credit. And his conciliatory (stop hitting me!) tone will then sound even better--he imagines.

What no one knows, though everyone speculates about, is how this pronouncement will play with the electorate. They already have such mixed feelings about almost everything--Iraq, the economy, Bush, Kerry--that anyone who claims to know how this'll play might as well be guessing.

Pajama Guy adds: The polls released Saturday show, if anything, a slight bump for Kerry, though NRO's Kerry spot suggests this is just because weekend sampling favors the Democrat. That said, unless there is a big move toward Bush Sunday morning, you will have to conclude the bin Laden tape didn't matter one whit. A bigger factor may turn out to be weather here in the Northeast. We're expecting scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday which I assume can only help Bush pick off a New Jersey, New Hampshire or Pennsylvania.