American Idol Shocker

I'm still stunned that the fans of American Idol kicked off Constantine last night. I felt sure he was safe. I'm not saying it was a bad decision--he gave the worst performance on Tuesday--just that it was shocking.

There were six contestants left, and only two had never been in the bottom three, Carrie Underwood and Constantine Maroulis. Both gave weak performances and I figured at least one would be in trouble, but they'd still come through. I thought the loser would be the unprepossessing Scott, who's already had a few close shaves, but he wasn't even in trouble. (It'd be a lot easier to predict these things if the show would release the vote totals, but they're top secret.)

Constantine, in fact, had the weakest voice of the finalists, but the best stage presence, and I didn't think his fans would let him down. In fact, he was so popular, his old rock group was just signed to a label. (Will they find some clause to cut them now?) I'll miss the spark he added--I was hoping he'd make it to the finals.

What's interesting about Idol is as they toss people off, the voting patterns change. It seemed only a matter of time before one of the two rockers, Constantine or Bo Bice, lost--the show couldn't support both indefinitely. (It's never even had one before.) It appears no one is such a favorite that he can survive a bad performance.

Those left are the most diverse final five in Idol's short history. There's rocker Bo, country lass Carrie, Whitneyesque Vonzell Solomon, blue-eyed soul singer Scott, and Clay Aiken-style balladeer Anthony Federov.

It's hard to predict who will get to the finals from such a varied group, but let me try. I think Federov, who has the best pure voice of the five (during original tryouts I said that guy will win), but the worst stage presence, will not last long--he's been a mainstay of the bottom three and can't last forever. Same for Scott.

Though Vonzell has a popular style to herself, and is also the only African-American left, I don't think she'll make it all the way. I think Bo will get the rocker vote and Carrie the surprisingly large countrified vote. I find Carrie the least interesting singer in the bunch, but she's never been anywhere near the bottom, so it's hard to bet against that. The only way she won't make the finals is if the soul vote goes to whoever's left of Vonzell and Scott--then we'll see if rock and soul can take down country.