Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Trend or Blip?

John Fund has a piece in the Wall Street Journal on the Bush vote in 2004. In heavy turnout, Bush won 51% to 48%--not bad, but not so overwhelming that Republicans can be complacent. So which blocs of voters are secure, and which might be chipped away? The biggest question mark is probably Latinos.

While Democrats have a death grip on the African-American vote, Latinos showed a major move toward Republicans. Fund says Bush gained 9% more than in 2000, to finish with 44% of the overall vote. He calls this "worrisome" for Democrats. Is it?

First, even if the Republicans continue to get 44% of the Latino vote, this means Democrats are still winning a solid majority of a growing minority. More important, was this a one-time bounce due to security/morality issues, and an appealing candidate (and not-so-appealing Democrat)? If so, then this unusually high number, seems to me, is more worrisome to Republicans.

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