Nobody Knows Anything

Experts are still scratching their heads at the relative failure of Cinderella Man. The Ron Howard film, starring Russell Crowe and Renee Zellweger, which got great reviews and tested through the roof, opened to a disappointing $18.3 million, behind three other films that were already playing. Now, in its second week, it's dropping approximately 50%, suggesting word of mouth won't save it. The film is not a complete flop, but it's not the summer counter-programming hit that Universal was counting on.

The first rule of show biz is you don't have to explain failure--that's the norm. Still, let me try to give a few reasons why the film is underperforming. Others have noted the confusing title and worse slogan: "When America was on its knees, he brought us to our feet." (Just what are they suggesting?) In this front-loaded age, the audience has to know what to expect.

But I think the problem goes deeper. Some films play better to critics and preview audiences than to regular crowds. Films with a prestigious pedigree (check), solid craftmanship (check) and good intentions (double check), for example. I think regular moviegoers saw the trailer and thought "this is a film that's supposed to be good for me." Who needs that? And I think it plays as a film that's too earnest, too depressing and not really surprising. It's not bad, but it's not something you'll call your friends about.

On the other hand, if you want to see a well-marketed film that gets the audience really excited, no matter what the critics say, look no further than Mr. & Mrs. Smith. It made more on its first day than Cinderella Man made in its first weekend.

Some have suggested Crowe's phone-tossing incident hurt his film. I don't buy it. The muted response from the audience was clear before that, and if you don't distinguish yourself quickly in the summer, it's rare you get another chance. Besides, Brad dumped Jen for Angelina and the audience isn't punishing him for that.