Mister Roberts

After a head-fake or two, President Bush has nominated John Roberts to the Supreme Court. It's a bit of a surprise--he was on the short list, but not the short short list. It also shows that, whatever else, Bush didn't feel this was a "woman's" seat, nor did he feel an overwhelming need to put in a Latino. Perhaps he'll take care of this next time. (I still suspect Rehnquist might leave soon.)

Roberts is a well-known Washington figure with a reputation as a brilliant advocate. He's also served as a federal judge, though only since 2003. By pre-Bork standards, he'd sail through. However, he is, as far as can be guessed, a solid conservative replacing a not-so-solid conservative, so the fight from the Democrats should be ferocious. A second "however," however--the Republicans have 55 votes (56 if you count the Veep) and a candidate who will probably come across just fine. If the Republicans can't get him through, it'll be their fault, not the Dems.

A few other notes. It's one thing to be an advocate, another to be a judge. While Bush has probably chosen someone who's a perfect candidate for the Right, some people change once they get on the Court. Stay tuned. Second, even if he's opposed to Roe V. Wade, there still won't be enough votes to overturn it, though there might be the votes to allow change around the edges (e.g., parental notification laws).

PS Roberts looks like a cross between Larry Hagman and Bill Daily.