AG stays AG

As far as I'm concerned, Bush can't pick his next Supreme Court nominee fast enough. At the very least, it would mean the end of ColumbusGuy's updates and this blog could get back to normal.

The decision may be Bush's most important in his second term, but he's had plenty of time to consider it, and I'm sure he's ready.

There are a number of reasons he could pick Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez. Alberto has a lot of experience and is a good friend. Also, Bush would probably like to appoint either a Latino or a woman to fill O'Connor's slot. But I doubt Alberto will get the nod.

First, Bush wants a true conservative--at least he's given every outward indication of that. He knows that, even with a Republican Senate, replacing Rehnquist and O'Connor with two fairly solid conservatives only has about a 50-50 chance of moving the Court rightward, once the dust settles. Gonzalez, who is "soft" on the two biggest issues--abortion and affirmative action--is probably out right off the bat.

But imagine if he did pick his old pal--Bush is the faithful type, after all. I have to admit, it's almost worth it, since the hearings would be so interesting.

First, how many Republicans would oppose Gonzalez? It's hard to go against your own party's Prez. Besides, a lot of Republicans aren't that conservative and probably don't want to see Roe touched. Nevertheless, the hardcore Right would be so opposed that Gonzalez would probably lose double figures in the GOP.

Then there are the Dems. Even an obviously qualified contender, like Roberts, had to put up with endless speeches and posturing during his hearings, not to mention half the Dems voting against him. First, Gonzalez is a Republican--that alone should cause some trouble. But worse, he was involved in the torture memos brouhaha, which makes him Satan to some on the hardcore Left. While many sensible senators would lick their chops at the prospect of another Souter, there might be just as many fearful of their base. And they'd bring it out during the hearings, toying with Gonzalez like a cat and mouse.

So in the unlikely event AG is nominated, you'd get a weird coalition of the extremes versus the middle. It'd be fun to watch. Too much fun, really. Which is another reason Bush won't pick him.