The Democrats' gay marriage?

In 2004 the Massachusetts high court decided it was more moral than everyone else and attempted to compel legalized gay marriage.

The intermediate result was a backlash that caused something like a dozen states, including Ohio, to adopt "defense of marriage" amendments. It also raised conservative churches to a higher prominence in elections, which did the Democrats no favors. It's quite likely that this made the difference in Ohio, and thus made Bush president instead of Kerry. None of this bodes well for the Democrats.

Now the South Dakota House of Representatives has passed a bill to ban abortion. Now the issue will go to the senate.

Regardless of your position on abortion, you should hope it dies there (no pun intended, partisan or otherwise).

If you're pro-abortion, your fear is the same as the bill's proponent's hope, that the supremes will toss out Roe. You probably don't want that chance.

If you're pro-life, your hopes might be the same. But there are several problems here. One is strategic: Bush might get a chance to name another justice. Chances are that will make the court more conservative than it is on this issue, which increases the odds of a favorable outcome, so far as you are concerned. Better to challenge when you're stronger, and better to get another soldier on your side before you rile the opponents even more than they'll be riled already.

Second, it's a bit unseemly for the people you're counting on, Roberts and Alito. One would hope that they'll analyze the issues legitimately and come out according to principle. But this is trickier than it sounds. Even pro-lifers should acknowledge there's a huge body of law and judges that consider the pro-abortion decision to be a respectable one. By appearing too greedy and pushy, pro-lifers run the risk of pushing Roberts and Alito to the opposite position. And even if it doesn't, it puts them in an awkward position.

Third, this could be a tricky election for the Republicans. Unless the supreme court is able to reject a petition for cert before the election, this thing will be huge news all the way to election day if the bill becomes law. It'll raise opposition to Republicans and undermine Republican positions, which is not what the pro-lifers want. It'll be the Democrats' gay marriage.