Mac Attack

Who would have thought that the Democrats would have the more interesting race going into Super Tuesday? But after John McCain's win in Florida, he's the odds-on favorite to get the nomination. His only credible competitition is Mitt Romney.

The exit polls had a lot of interesting information. I've been wondering for quite a while how the other candidates' voters would split between the big two. Turns out Thompson's people go 2-1 for Romney, Huckabee's 5-3 for McCain, and Rudy's split about even. (Now that Rudy has endorsed McCain, will that change? I was a bit surprised at the endorsement. Is it about national security, or is there bad blood between Rudy and Mitt?)

And McCain won due to some interesting blocs. He inspires both the young and the old, while Mitt gets those in-between. He also appeals to the poorest and the wealthiest (sounds like a Democrat).

Oddly--to me, anyway--McCain is preferred on economic issues. Mitt needs to turn that around if he wants to win.

But the two decisive factors were race and ideology. Romney had a slight edge among whites, but among non-Whites--and Florida has a huge Latino population--McCain led big. As for politics, though it was a closed primary and I thought only Republicans could vote, one in five voters was an Independent or Democrat. The two were tied among Repubs, but the others went strong for John.

One more interesting fact--after all the attention showered on Florida, one in four voters didn't decide on their man until the last three days.

McCain was written off not that long ago, but I always felt in a crowded field with no obvious frontrunner, and all the candidates seriously flawed, he had as good a chance as any, since SOMEONE had to win.

And then everything started cutting for him. First Giuliani, the most popular candidate, all but drops out. Then Huckabee takes Iowa, preventing a serious frontrunner like Romney or perhaps Thompson from become a suffocating favorite. This was enough of an opening for McCain to come roaring through in New Hampshire, revitalizing his campaign.

It was an odd race from the start because, except for the late-starting Thompson, there was no obvious heir apparent for the True Conservative title. They all battled to be the most conservative, but each one had records that showed all sorts of odd votes and policy choices.

Some Republicans feel McCain has the best chance in the general election, but he seems like a weak candidate to me. (They all seem weak.) Of course, you've got his age, which, especially if he's running against a vital Obama, is likely to work against him. And while he does, at present, have wider appeal than the others, he doesn't excite the base--in fact, the base hates him. These days, an excited base is as important as a solid center appeal. And as to the center, even the left, they may love him as the great Republican maverick, but as soon as he's up against a Democrat, his Right side will be accentuated and he probably won't seem so appealing. Also, sooner or later, his persnickety personality will come out. (It's hard to say how his immigration stance will play. He seems to be giving up one of the great wedge issues for his party, but he might get a nice slice of the Latino vote to make up for it.)

I can't say I'm thrilled about McCain being the frontrunner. McCain-Feingold is one of the most disgusting laws the Congress has ever passed. The best thing about him is his being elected President would make a strong statement about national security, but I'm not sure if that's worth giving up so much else.