On Track

While it's too early to worry about the national race, the polls are showing too much variance even if you wanted to. Look at Rassmussen tracking, which gives McCain a whopping ten point lead over either candidate.

I wouldn't believe this regardless, but the differences in various polls are too wide to be just random--one or more have bad modeling. No one's really sure, even based on past performance, who the likely voters are.

My guess is the polls showing Dems doing the best are most likely to be correct. I base this on the high turnout we've seen in their primaries this year. This is due to a number of factors, but at least one is a highly motivated base.