Slowmentum
A lot of people are claiming Obama's got it all sewn up no matter what happens on Tuesday.
Well, it looks right now that both Texas and Ohio are close. That means there's at least a reasonable chance Hillary will win both states, if not by large margins. Wouldn't that change the race? With Obama having all the momentum and endorsements, shouldn't that give the Dems pause--that their guy is weak enough that he didn't take any of the three most populous states and lost the biggest swing state of all?
posted by LAGuy @ 1:13 AM
2 Comments:
That was Anne Coulter's line all over the media yesterday (And it worked, Russert picked up the tune)- of course her aim to ultimately make the democratic nominee appear weak.
Of course the longer the campaign goes on in this vein where the two dems are more interested in gaining short term advantage by taking pot shots at the other will make the eventual winner look weak. Think Reagan undermining Ford in 76, Kennedy on Carter in 80 (GHW Bush on the other side tempered his remarks on Reagan much earlier). One could argue that Gore and Jackson undermining Dukakis in 88 far outweighed Dole's assault on Bush. etc....
Modern electioneering has a fast turnaround, and a couple months are more than enough to have the lead change several times, as we have seen already in the primary season.
It's arguable that Reagan hurt Ford enough that he couldn't make things up in time for the election (remember Ford had one of the greatest comebacks ever in the history of polling, and just fell short a couple points). I'd argue Watergate and the pardon had more to do with it. But that was in an age with much less media, when things didn't turn on a dime. Even assuming the 2008 Dem convention were a knock-down drag-out fight (which is unimaginable), I think there'd still be more than enough time to totally re-brand by the election.
Carter whipped Kennedy's ass (to use Carter's words) so badly that it could only help his reputation--Reagan had a tougher time with Bush.
And Gore and Jackson hurting Dukakis? I don't get it. Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Bush when his convention was over.
Another example of a huge modern turnaround, showing nothing matters till the convention, is Clinton in 1992, who at this point was in third (yes, you read that right, third) place in national polls even with the Democrat nomination assured. And though Kerry had the nomination easily sewn up four years ago, and was leading in the polls against Bush, he still lost.
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