Blow Out Before The Bow Out
West Virginia isn't exactly Florida. Still, how must Obama and his supporters feel, losing to Hillary by more than 40 points. It's too late to deny him the nomination, but if he can't do better than that it doesn't bode well for nearby states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:03 AM
3 Comments:
West Virginia is Mississippi without the black folks. When 25% of the voters are over 65 years old, and 30% say that they voted for Hillary because she's the white candidate, well, let's just say that doesn't really reflect anything except West Virginia.
Wow- Obama got blown out far more than I expected and while the math doesn't change much, a similar occurrence in Kentucky next week will definitely further damage the brand.
Two points that get a little overlooked- votes for Clinton in the primary aren't necessarily votes against Obama - although there are troubling signs for him in the exit polls about that- we would have to see where that lays after the competitive aspect has faded. Two- the appeal that Hillary made to wallop Obama (good old girl supporting regular folks against the elites) would probably backfire against her in a general election WV contest against McCain where the elitist Wellesley- Yale -"It takes a Village" stuff they don't like in Morgantown and Weirton, would probably be hammered home.
If her aim is to damage Obama, she is succeeding admirably but any hope of her candidacy will probably be dragged down if she gets any more support like this (cut and paste) http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/
editorial_opinion/oped/articles
/2008/05/14/
sexism___stoked_by_the_media/
Hillary is actually THE strongest national election candidate. She is known and liked by a significant group within her party, and she has a fair sized independent vote. Obama is the darling of many in his party (about the same number who merely like Hill) but does not do well with a goodly number from within the party. He draws little from the middle (I think, though this has yet to be determined). His strength so far is that he pulls in those who did not vote previously. This could carry into the general but I think is already fading as it is realized that he is just a politician. McCain is disliked by many dems and repubs and his strength is in the mushy middle and with military folks. the mushy middle are not the folks who 1. give big money, 2. go door to door, 3. even bother to show up sometimes.
So, both Obama and McC have a base of people that may or may not show up on election day. Hill's base is much more secure. Hill/Obama is the strongest and truly unbeatable ticket.
AAGuy
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