Off Track

Really polls don't matter too much right now for the general election. You shouldn't even look at them till after Labor Day. But because Drudge linked to this Reuters poll that has Obama with a bigger lead than usual over McCain, 48-40, millions may think this is a useful snap shot of the race.

I saw the poll, too (even before Drudge linked), which I guess means I don't take my own advice. But even as an indication of how things are now, I quickly realized this poll isn't very useful. As you can see from this listing of recent polls, Reuters/Zogby is not exactly in line with the others.

Look, for instance, at the Obama-Clinton matchup. Rassmussen tracking gives Obama an 8 point lead, Gallup tracking gives Obama an 11 point lead. Both these margins are a bit wider than usual, and may reflect the growing feeling that Obama's got the nomination sewn up. But now look at the Reuters poll--Obama has a 26 point lead over Clinton! Considering how badly Hillary has recently beat him in some major states, this number isn't plausible.

So I'd guess the Reuters poll, and perhaps the Reuters modeling, overestimates Obama's strength. The only question is by how much.