Barr One
My theory seems to be holding true about the Barr effect. In this recent CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by one point in a face-off, but throw in Nader and Barr and he leads by two points.
I think Nader, despite what people commonly believe, is mostly a wash--he's a chance for the disaffected from both parties to express dissatisfaction. Barr, on the other hand, probably takes from McCain over Obama by around 2 to 1, maybe more.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:08 AM
5 Comments:
The best theory I have heard about Palin is that she is meant to counteract the Barr effect- make more sense than the idea she'll attract any Hillary supporters
I definitely see her firming up the base, but is that related to Barr? He's running on the libertarian ticket, while she appeals, I thought, to the social conservatives.
Plus, NEG, you're assuming all the "Hillary supporters" are the ordinary bedwetting liberals, rather than voters who might vote elsewhere but are attracted to the "woman" nonsense. If there are some voters who fit that demo, and obviously there are, the question is whether any of them will feel more at home in Palin's camp than Obama's.
Presumably, those caught on the fence between passionate liberalism (Obama) and passionate wimminism (Hillary, who isn't there) now have a problem that they wouldn't have had if Hillary were the nominee. I wouldn't expect that group to be all that large, but then again, I wouldn't expect the number of women who aren't attracted to the Dems to begin with who were attracted to them because of Hillary to be all that large either.
GoSWMBCg, etc.
The inimitable (and far too often invisible) CG has it dead on. I just spent the weekend in New Hampshire with some non-PUMA older Hillary supporters who were utterly unenthused about either Obama or McCain. Both women seemingly are going to give Palin a hearing, just to see if she is worthy of their support as purely the next step in the suffrage/feminism fight. This despite the strongly vocal disdain for Palin from one of their voting-age daughters.
If nothing else, then, McCain's ticket is getting a second hearing from a group who might otherwise have tuned out, which means she's already provided him with some value.
The vicious response to Palin from the lunatic (and not so lunatic - see Alan Colmes and Andrew Sullivan) fringe on the left is not making things easier for Obama.
If he can't talk some sense into his base, the backlash could be enormous.
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