Saturday, February 07, 2009

Fairer To Sarah

This is from Commentary's "The Meaning Of Sarah Palin":

In the end, Palin had a modest impact on the race. About 60 percent of those interviewed in the exit polls said McCain’s choice of Palin had been a factor in their vote. Of these, 56 percent voted for McCain while only 43 percent voted for Obama. In other words, she appears to have helped McCain more than she hurt him, but not by much, which is as it should be; we were voting for a President, after all. In the face of unprecedented attack, Palin succeeded where almost no vice-presidential candidate ever has before in winning sustained support for the ticket.

I don't think this will do. I'd agree chances are she had a modest impact on the race since people vote for the top of the ticket. But she did get a lot more attention than any other running mate I can think of (absurdly so, really), and so the two questions should be did she have more impact than other Veeps, and was it positive.

I don't know the answer to these questions, but mosty because there's not enough information available. Running mates are like doctors--first, do no harm. And unless we have numbers from previous elections, which the article doesn't provide, it's impossible to interpret the stats above.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know how you measure it but the Palin factor is not just an evaluation of her but of the candidate who picked her. It seemed like another whacko spur of the moment decision- Let's cancel the debate! Let's pick an unknown!

I think you need to look at McCain's path to victory and if he excited people who were more or less going to vote for him anyway while repelling the middle (odd since the middle won him the primaries) then the simple measure cited in the post can't tell the whole story (Of course I don't know how you measure my assertion either)

9:17 AM, February 07, 2009  
Blogger LAGuy said...

People always say the Veep pick is the first Presidential decision the candidate has ever made--which I find silly and which I doubt too many people find convincingt. The only reason it might have made any difference with Palin is that she was such a polarizing figure, and got so much attention. Still, when it came down to it, I'd guess the vast majority of voters, as always, voted for the President, regardless of his pick. A lot of people thought Dan Quayle was a rotten pick, but the times were right for a Republican victory. This time around, the time was right for a Democrat victory.

11:19 AM, February 07, 2009  

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