Not Forgotten
Just want to note that last year, in November, New England Guy wrote this:
By this time next year, Obama approval rating will be hovering at 45-50% as economy slows and recriminations flow. I think most complaints will come from democrats (possibly from the senator from NY) though as Obama tries to steer a more consensus course (not that this will win him any initial plaudits from the other side). [To be fair to NEGuy, when he wrote this, it looked like the Republicans could hold as many as 44 seats in the Senate, which would mean Obama would have to listen to them at least a little.] As economy turns thereafter, I think the numbers will go up. I also think Obama will be smart enough not to walk off a cliff in his first 60 days and will abandon "card check." (this has been a big TV issue in Maine with the Soprano/Johnny Sack ads)
I do think McCain will be back to his irascible old self and blame his loss on embracing the folks he called "agents of intolerance" 8 years ago and will distance himself from Palin (that may be mutual) and, perhaps, call the choice a mistake by no later than Valentines Day. Being older and having no real future in the party he lead to a crashing defeat, I could see him in a year or so, accepting a foreign policy/defense position (official or unofficial) in the Obama Administration.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:16 AM
4 Comments:
Timing's off but I stand by the sentiments (also anticipated H Clinton would still be in the Senate)
All right, Malthus.
Maybe a more detailed analysis is in order (although technically I was talking about about what things might look like in Nov 2009):
-Obama's approval is down in the 50's (not really surprising)
-Dems have criticized him for not going for enough and for slicing off big portions of the stimulus bill to get R's Specter, Collins and Snowe on board- the ideological core of the Dem party certainly thinks Obama has gone "consensus" on him
-Card check has not moved forward- unions not happy with this.
-Did not anticipate (probably should have) that Rs in their weakened ineffectual state would stop trying to cooperate at all since it is abetter political strategy to tell Obama he "owns everything" especially in bad economic times. This is a strategy that removes accountability for everything bad that happens- and probably best strategy for a small party.
-McCain is irascible- has not disowned Palin (though many of his aides have) but was less than enthused about endorsing her quitting (Her second less successful escape from the kitchen- sorry- have wanted to use that line somewhere). A couple more Paris Hilton type episodes
-McCain and Obama have joined forces recently on opposing weapons system that the Pentagon doesn't want but Congress is pushing. A future role with the admin is possible if his party goes for the nutty option.
-One big thing did not see (again should have) was all the Clintonite/Emmanuelesian type appointments- probably more centrist on a policy sense but more partisan in a tactical sense. Not exactly what was ordered
Nothing Malthusian about it.
So Obama has these elephantine Dem programs which, one out of ten times, he cuts by ten percent, which makes them more palatable to the public (if he cut them by 90% they'd be even more palatable), and then then asks for another, when they're ten times too big already, and that's your idea of going consensus? Bush didn't wait to cross the aisle, but passed a whole bunch of major Dem plans right away, and even his foreign policy was supported by both parties (while Obama is busy going on apology tours).
This isn't what Obama ran on, it's not what's popular with the public, it's radical leftist, and somehow it's the Republicans who won't give in?
Because the Repubs attempt to stop a bunch of massive programs Obama wants to shove down their throats, any single one of which would be a gigantic, anti-conservative game changer, suddenly the Repubs, who don't run anything even slightly, are the ones who don't want to cooperate. Obama is sticking ten knives deep into conservatives and if the Repubs ask him "why don't we actually think about this a little before we do it?" that's your idea of their lack of cooperation.
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