Reflections/Predictions
Having accurately predicted [link] a McCain-Obama race on January 3 (and while I did say Obama would pick another Democratic candidate as his veep and that McCain would pick a women, I erred in thinking it would be Richardson and Rice) and that George Will would claim that the Obama success is evidence that racism was a spent card in America, as he, well, sort-of-said in his column yesterday (2/3ds of the way down) [link] and having also mentioned that Obama would not win in a landslide but decisively by around 5-7% on October 1 [link-see comment 1] (the latest numbers put it at about 52-46), I thought I would take advantage of good luck (I'm not so good at other predictions as will be apparent when we look at last year's end of year effort) and offer the following. Hey if I don't pat my own back, who else will?
By this time next year, Obama approval rating will be hovering at 45-50% as economy slows and recriminations flow. I think most complaints will come from democrats (possibly from the senator from NY) though as Obama tries to steer a more consensus course (not that this will win him any initial plaudits from the other side). As economy turns thereafter, I think the numbers will go up. I also think Obama will be smart enough not to walk off a cliff in his first 60 days and will abandon "card check." (this has been a big TV issue in Maine with the Soprano/Johnny Sack ads)
I do think McCain will be back to his irascible old self and blame his loss on embracing the folks he called "agents of intolerance" 8 years ago and will distance himself from Palin (that may be mutual) and, perhaps, call the choice a mistake by no later than Valentines Day. Being older and having no real future in the party he lead to a crashing defeat, I could see him in a year or so, accepting a foreign policy/defense position (official or unofficial) in the Obama Administration.
The big story in the next 11 weeks will, of course, be the filling out of the Obama Cabinet, but after the election parties die down next week, we are going to see a lot of attention paid to the potential upcoming presidential pardons.
posted by New England Guy @ 5:13 AM
13 Comments:
I don't see McCain trashing Palin. She was his choice, after all, so any blame for her falls squarely on his shoulders.
I'm sure that a number of pols will try to blame Palin for the problems with the campaign but if anyone can honestly make an argument for another VP choice that might have made a difference, I'd love to hear it.
From my perspective, Palin WAS the campaign. The thought of a McCain presidency was decidedly ho-hum until she entered the race. Right now, she is the only candidate on the Republican side with the ability to attract and motivate people in the manner that Obama does for the Dems. In time, as the new guard replaces the old, others will join with her to form the future of the party.
I'll admit, the nature of her appeal eludes me. Other than young, energetic attractive and appeals to a tendency who had no candidate in the race until she got there. She definitely added votes but at the cost of losing others (60% unfavorable ratings do not help no matter how wild she makes the base, which is not so big right now). McCain went against the grain by going centrist in the primary and then tacking right with his veep in the election. Probably not a path others would follow.
I really don't see her narrower appeal working in the future unless Obama and the demos go off completely half-cocked and bring the the "misery index" up to 1980 levels and push the ideology was to the forefront
McCain's "mistake" was having a highly unpopular President and then running during a financial crisis.
If Obama tanks, and that's a coin flip, Palin will look better and better. Her appeal isn't narrow, it's quite wide, and the next time around she won't be blindsided by the media.
"Blindsided" by questions about the Bush doctrine and Supreme Court decisions she disagrees with. Who ever could have expected those? The Palin apologists are some serious head-scratchers for the rest of us.
Shall I list all the idiotic and false things Obama and Biden said without even participating in any "gotcha" sessions?
Imoressive record on your predictions. Going forward, I think McCain will stay in the Senate (he's up for reelection in 2 years I believe) and try to make his mark on history by keeping the Republicans relevant in a Democrat controlled Senate.
I think Palin is bound to become the Senator from Alaska when ted Stevens leaves, one way or the other. She is an attractive candidate for Republicans, and she'll shed the "lack of experience" claim by serving in the Senate.
QG, she addressed that issue here. You need new material. No doubt in the next couple of years, she'll provide you with some.
DG, I think it would be a huge mistake for her to move into the Senate. Day to day involvement with Washington D.C. politics would not help her. She needs to go back to AK and continue to do the job she was elected to. In two years, after a landslide re-election, she'll be in a much better position to make a run for the Presidency.
The only reason we elected a Senator this time is because we had no choice. I don't think we'll see it again in my lifetime.
VG, your citation proves nothing other than her ability to recite talking points to spin her failures. She was no more being "flippant" about not knowing what the Bush doctrine is than John McCain meant "fundamentals of the economy" to mean the productivity of our workers.
I agree with your advice to her to stay out of the senate, though. God forbid she ever had to answer for her votes on any substantive issues of national importance -- that would blow the whole mystique.
It's a bit hard for me to see how she could get to the Senate to replace Ted Stevens. Assuming he has to leave in the near future, what does she do -- appoint herself Senator? And then appoint her own replacement as Governor? That would seem to be overreaching, even for Alaska.
If Stevens is forced out or resigns, a special election will be called to replace him. Gov. Palin could run in that election, and presumably would be a strong favorite if she did.
So is Africa a country? (Note this was on O'REILLY- and for the record, he wasn't terribly concerned that Palin didn't know that)
Palin knows how to run things domestically, and hasn't thought much on foreign issues. I'll take that over someone who has no experience on how to run things domestically and has thought long and stupidly about foreign affairs.
So how do all those Palin opinions stack up now?
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