Coming Down Fast
For the first time ever, Pollster.com shows President Obama's disapproval has surpassed his approval. While this may not be correct (the combined data includes Rasmussen, which is about five points tougher on Obama than other polls), there's no doubt a downward trend.
It's easy to make too much of it. He was almost bound to drop from the post-election high. And if the economy starts to improve significantly next year, those numbers should go back up. But I must say I'm surprised. If you offered me a bet in January that his polling would be above 50% by the end of the year, I'd not only have taken it, I'd have given you odds.
Speaking of which, it won't be long before I look at the predictions I made early in the year and see how I did.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:31 AM
9 Comments:
Without anything big like a war (he's not really fighting a war), even if the economy stays bad I can't see him dropping below 45%.
Since polls have shown themselves to meaningless in the last election in terms of being wrong and don't really mean anything anyway (how does a president act differently with a 45 or 55 approval rating?) Also the 24 hour news cycle has got better, the volatility has increased. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama was both in the 20s and the 70s during 2010
(verification word was "bitin")
Pardon me? Polls have shown themselves to be meaningless? When did this happen? I seem to recall the polls predicting pretty accurately what was going to happen in 08.
And there is certainly a world of difference between a 55% and 45% approval rating. It may affect what Obama does himself, and it'll certainly affect how other politicians react to him.
I don't see Obama ever dropping into the 20s. It's hard to imagine him dropping into the 30s without a major screwup.
I suspect the polls will dramatically effect Obama's behavior the rest of his first term. If his numbers keep dropping (and CNN and Gallup now have him below 50% approval, in addition to Rasmussen), he will go full bore on a new jobs bill. Cap & Trade will fall by the wayside. Health care will pass in January or February in whatever form Joe Lieberman will accept.
Or Olympia Snowe.
The polls predicted a Hillary Clinton win in Iowa, an Obama win in NH, a Romney surge etc... and those were polls related to a real contest with a winner- these are vague feelgood questions which rely on (among other things) instantaneous reaction to whatever the 24 hour news cycle is pushing and since they have no meaning (there is no prize for achieving a particular number), what are people actually saying. Obama partisans will say "disapprove" to push the Admin in a certain way and loyal reps may vote "approve' to get at their leadership.
Its clear thew Obama administration has abandoned campaign mode to tackle issues which are not conducive to good popularity contest showings. whether this was wise or not is yet to be seen
"The polls predicted a Hillary Clinton win in Iowa, an Obama win in NH, a Romney surge etc"
Polling early in the race with new names doesn't mean that much, especially when dealing with small states. (It counts for nothing when dealing with caucuses.)
"Obama partisans will say "disapprove" to push the Admin in a certain way and loyal reps may vote "approve' to get at their leadership."
These aren't "partisans." Obama has lost supports from everyone, and especially independents. In any case, what counts here is the trend, since these same "partisans" liked what they saw not so long ago.
"Its clear thew Obama administration has abandoned campaign mode to tackle issues which are not conducive to good popularity contest showings."
Let's assume this is true (and it's not). This is admitting the previous paragraph was wrong.
Attempting to reform health care is a (relatively) long-term play. He knew he would take a hit from both sides during the process -- folks who don't like the idea dislike him more for bringing it up at all and folks who do like the idea dislike him for not being more directly involved. If he is perceived as winning, he'll bounce back with the latter and the fence-sitters. If he is perceived as losing, this is going to be a drop in the bucket compared to the nose-dive you'll see this summer.
"Attempting to reform health care is a (relatively) long-term play. He knew he would take a hit from both sides during the process "
I don't agree. He knew there'd be opposition, but he also thought it would be popular legislation. Why not? It was polling well and he'd bought off all the special interests. He also figured he'd pass it quickly. He openly said he wanted to get this thing through by the end of August, and he had a mind-bogglingly huge lead in Congress. I think he's been shocked by the problems he's had.
"If he is perceived as winning, he'll bounce back with the latter and the fence-sitters."
A lot of people have this fantasy. They still believe this fantasy about Hillarycare. Yes, he wants to put it behind him so the controversy dies down, and yes, years down the road when people see the benefits and the much greater costs are hidden, the program can be popular, but most of the opposition today and in the near future comes from people enraged at him trying to pass a bill against their very vocal demands. They'll continue being angry as the costs start--years before the benefits. There really aren't that many fence sitters.
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