The Original Sin

At the risk of beating a dead horse, let me talk about how NBC screwed up their late night business. Maybe Leno back on 11:35 will work out, but there's been a lot of damage along the way. Why?

Simple. It's not any recent mistakes by Jeff Zucker, it's an old one. Six years ago, Zucker, who'd had a meteoric rise through the ranks at NBC, saw a problem coming and wanted to head it off. Jay Leno was a huge success, beating the pants off his competitors. Conan O'Brien was doing reasonably well in his slot afterward. But Leno was getting old, as was his audience, and Conan seemed the wave of the future. O'Brien's contract was coming up. He'd worked hard and expected a payoff--The Tonight Show itself. Without that, he'd bolt.

So Zucker split the difference. He made a deal (that I called asburd at the time, sorry I can't find the post) which caused all today's problems. He promised Conan The Tonight Show in five years and convinced Jay to step aside at that time. Jay probably still smarted from a similar situation with his old friend David Letterman and didn't want to be the bad guy again.

But think about this. Jay is huge--maybe the biggest moneymaker the network has. There's no reason his show will falter in the foreseeable future. Sure, it's smart to get ready to make your move when something is still popular but on the downward trend, but Jay hadn't hit that yet. Furthermore, he was tireless, faithful to the network, and a guy who did nothing but work. Why would he want to retire before he's 60? He's the kind of guy who'd ride the show out as long as NBC, and nature, allowed. Zucker is messing with success without a good reason.

So what should he do about Conan? Well, promise him a lot, just not Tonight at a date certain. Explain to him that Jay won't last forever, and when he leaves, Conan--as long as he stays at NBC--will get Tonight. Until then, he's got a great showcase. Furthermore, Zucker could have given him more money, another show to produce, more prime time specials, whatever. Just not Tonight right away. And if you want to get nasty, note to Conan there's no chance he'll do as well elsewhere--let's face it, he'll be throwing away a great thing for a very chancy thing, which might well end his career.

If Conan leaves, fine. You're confident Jay will slay him in direct competition, and since Jay will be around for a while, you've now get maybe a decade to cultivate a new replacement. Maybe that Jon Stewart, he looks pretty good. Or maybe some unknown, like Conan was.

Once the deal became due, there were no good options. You were destroying a huge hit, which is already a disaster. Then what do you do about Leno? The guy is not the type to retire. You can offer him a show, but it can't be Tonight, so it's got to be better. Except his sort of entertainment isn't ready for prime time. The ten p.m. deal takes a bad situation and makes it worse. (I might add that while Zucker is working out the Leno deal, he's also dropping his overall prime time schedule, that had been #1 for years, to last place.) But if you don't offer Jay something, he'll take his show to ABC or someone else and beat you, which may be even worse.

Meanwhile, you're taking a huge chance allowing Conan, who's still unproven, to take over the great real estate of which Jay was a super caretaker.

Zucker didn't make a deal six years ago, he set off a time bomb.