Predictions For 2010

It's a new year. Time to go back to work. Might as well get in my predictions for 2010 before they're proved wrong. (Yesterday I discussed last year's predictions.)

American politics:

The Dems, though they command a huge majority in Congress and run the White House, will not introduce any major new initiatives, except those dealing with the economy and jobs.

Obama will drop in popularity for a while then stabilize. If the economic numbers are good enough, he'll even improve. In fact, the Democratic Party has just about bottomed out and will not poll any worse in November than now.

The Repubs will make major gains in the House elections, but will not take it back. In the Senate, however, there won't be more than a three-seat gain, if any gain at all.

Justice Sotomayor will be a reliable vote on the left in controversial, 5-4 cases.

International politics:

Maybe this is hope over my expectation, but I'm gonna say at least one of these two things will happen: 1) the theocracy that's been running Iran for 30 years will fall, or be significantly wounded. 2) Syria and Israel will, in essence, make peace.

There will be no major global deal struck on carbon emissions (that has any teeth).

There will be no major successful terrorist attack on U. S. soil. (What's major? Hard to say. Let's say more than 10 dead.)

Though this is more for 2011, the planned withdrawal from Afghanistan will be slower than expected.

The economy:

Unemployment will go down, below 9 percent, maybe even 8 percent, by the end of the year.

With the Dow hanging out around 10500 these days, I think the question is will it end the year above 11000, below 10000, or somewhere in between. I think it'll end above 11000.

Sports:

Michigan football will improve over last season.

Popular Culture:

Jeff Bridges will win the Best Actor Oscar, beating out George Clooney and Colin Firth. The toughest battle will be for Best Actress, and Carey Mulligan surprise with a win, not Sandra Bullock or Meryl Streep. Best supporting actor will go to Christoph Waltz. No one from Up In The Air will win Best Supporting Actress--that will go to Mo'Nique.

Lost will have a great season 6, though the finale will be unpopular or controversial among a large segment of its fans.