Predictions From 2009

Time to look back at my predictions for 2009. (If any of the other guys made predictions, now's the time to see how you did.)

Tomorrow I'll put up my predictions for 2010.

American politics:

I guessed Obama would concentrate on domestic policy. While I think he cares more about domestic than foreign policy (and may even wish he could wash his hands of the latter), and while I'd guess he spent more time on domestic issues, I can't say this prediction was correct.

But the next prediction was a bullseye, and was far from certain when I made it:

Congress would like to pass card check legislation, raise taxes on energy, bring back the Fairness Doctrine, created nationalized health care and have some form of comprehensive immigration reform. Due to public opposition, however, they will not be able to do a majority of these things (though they may nibble around at the edges or do things they believe will stealthily achieve their goals).

Even with massive majorities in both chambers, the Dems couldn't pass any of these initiatives. They spent most of their time trying to force through health care, and even that hasn't made it all the way yet, plus seems to be in a form far short of what they wanted. Cap and trade, meanwhile, shot through the House in about a day, but seems stalled in the Senate.

I was also right about an open spot on the Court, though I got wrong who'd leave, and didn't even try to guess who'd fill it.

International politics:

I was right about low violence in Iraq and general withdrawal.

I said Obama wouldn't be that different in approach from Bush. I'd say I'm wrong, considering how he's been meek at best in supporting pro-democracy protestors in Iran, while he couldn't wait to support the anti-American side in Honduras.

Economy:

I said unemployment wouldn't surpass 10%. I'm very sorry to say I was wrong.

I said the Dow wouldn't surpass 10,000 by year's end. I'm glad to say I was wrong.

I guessed gas prices would go up. Well, they did some of the time, but not all the time. I haven't checked, but I'd say the year was a wash.

Ecology:

I guessed skepticism of climate change would grow. Another bullseye. This was right even before "Climategate."

Popular Culture:

I said prime time ratings would drop. I believe I was right.

I said Letterman would beat Conan in the ratings. Once again, I think I got that right. Conan's ratings, in general, have been a disappointment to NBC. (As have Leno's.)

Here were my guesses for Oscars:

Mickey Rourke will beat Frank Langella and Sean Penn for the Best Actor Oscar. There will be no clear favorite for Best Actress, and the Academy may nominate someone like Sally Hawkins or Michelle Willliams, while Anne Hathaway will squeak out a win (and it won't be Meryl). Best Supporting Actor, Heath Ledger. The Academy may nominate Eddie Marsan, too. Viola Davis will suprise everyone, most of all Penelope Cruz, and win Best Supporting Actress.

Here's what happened: Sean Penn beat those other two. Hawkins and Williams weren't even nominated, and Best Actress was taken by Kate Winslet in a performance everyone's already forgotten. Ledger won, of course. Viola Davis was nominated, but only surprised those who thought she'd take it. Penelope Cruz surprised no one by winning.

I was right that there'd be no SAG strike, wasn't I? I can't even remember.

Sports:

I made a "huge" prediction and said Michigan would end up .500 or higher. I looked really smart when they were 5-2, but dropping the rest of the games that season ruined everything, and I don't just mean my prediction.