Predictions For 2009

Here goes nothing. (I've already discussed last year's predictions.)

American Politics:

Obama would like to concentrate on domestic policy, but the international scene will not allow him to. (I made this prediction before Israel attacked Gaza.)

Congress would like to pass card check legislation, raise taxes on energy, bring back the Fairness Doctrine, created nationalized health care and have some form of comprehensive immigration reform. Due to public opposition, however, they will not be able to do a majority of these things (though they may nibble around at the edges or do things they believe will stealthily achieve their goals).

At least one open spot on the Supreme Court (Stevens) and perhaps two (most likely Ginsburg).

International Politics:

As the transition continues in Iraq, there will not be major violence (in comparison to what's been seen in previous years). There'll be U.S. troop withdrawal, but not as fast as was hoped by the anti-war voters.

In general, Obama will not take a significantly different approach from Bush's except for certain issues (i.e., abortion, science) that aren't generally directly related to foreign affairs.

Economy:

The recession continues. Unemployment goes up but does not surpass 10%. The stock market wants to go up, but there won't be enough good news to go significantly higher, and will not top 10,000 by the end of the year.

Gas prices will go up.

Ecology:

Skepticism of global warming (or "climate change") will grow.

Popular Culture:

TV prime time ratings will continue to drop.

Letterman will beat Conan in the ratings.

Mickey Rourke will beat Frank Langella and Sean Penn for the Best Actor Oscar. There will be no clear favorite for Best Actress, and the Academy may nominate someone like Sally Hawkins or Michelle Willliams, while Anne Hathaway will squeak out a win (and it won't be Meryl). Best Supporting Actor, Heath Ledger. The Academy may nominate Eddie Marsan, too. Viola Davis will suprise everyone, most of all Penelope Cruz, and win Best Supporting Actress.

No SAG strike.

Sports:

Michigan will win at least half its football games. (A huge prediction.)