Crystal Ball

The Oscars this Sunday.  Some decent nominations, but not too much to get excited about.  The favorites have become clear, though there's hope for some surprises.

Best Picture:  The favorite has become The Artist, but with nine nominees, it's possible to get odd voting patterns, and something like The Help (which is loved by the biggest voting bloc, actors) or Hugo or The Descendants to slip through.  I'd pick The Tree Of Life, but that has no chance.

Best Actor:  Jean Dujardin is the favorite, which might lead to a fascinating acceptance speech.  George Clooney has a shot, though I'd pick Brad Pitt in a weak bunch.

Best Actress:  Viola Davis should win (was she the lead?) though I'd pick Michelle Williams. Another weak group.

Best Director:  Probably Michel Hazanavicius, which might lead to some amusing pronunciations.  I can almost imagine any of them sneaking through to win (especially Scorsese) except for Terrence Malick, the one who deserves it.

Best Supporting Actor:  The lock of the night.  Perhaps the lock of the decade.  There's no way Christopher Plummer won't win.  I'd probably give it to Jonah Hill.

Best Supporting Actress:  Octavia Spencer looks like the winner, though I could see Melissa McCarthy sneaking through.  Spencer would have to defeat her costar Jessica Chastain, but it wouldn't be the first time that happened in this category. I'd give the award to Chastain, though they nominated her for the wrong movie.

Best Original Screenplay:  Woody Allen will win another one of these, though he doesn't deserve it.  (The Academy will give plenty of awards to The Artist, but not for screenplay.)

Best Adapted Screenplay:  Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim (Dean Pelton) Rash will win for apparently capturing the intense boredom of their source material in The Descendants.

The film that will win the most Oscars:  It's between The Artist and Hugo (I'd say they both have a good shot at five), though the latter mostly or entirely in the technical categories.

PS  Okay, the Oscars are over, and every favorite listed above won except for Meryl Streep as Best Actress.  Also, The Artist and Hugo both got five Oscars.