Was It Too Much To Ask For?
All I wanted was an exciting election night. Three weeks ago it looked like we might have one. But with the polls in the last week moving in the direction of Obama--who was already leading--Romney doesn't seem to have much of a chance.
Obama looks to be 40 to 50 Electoral College votes ahead. In Ohio, Obama is ahead on average by around 3%. If it were half that I'd say it's too close to call, but right now it's hard to see how Romney takes this state.
That would pretty much be enough to win it for Obama, but he's also recently gone into slight leads in New Hampshire and Colorado, and holds solid leads in Iowa and Nevada, and even bigger ones in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnestoa.
It's true Romney has a decent chance of taking Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, but all that does is allow him to knock on the door. On the other hand, if he doesn't take this trio it's probably over.
So if you're an Obama fan, you can rest easier. If you're a Romney fan, you can fret. And if you want some excitement, watch Homeland.
PS Someone insisted I at least mention the Republican argument as to why the polls are wrong. Without going into any numbers, the idea is that in 2008 Democrats were elated and Republicans were depressed, so the D's voted in much higher numbers than usual and the R's in lower numbers. Furthermore, in the last four years, many people who took a chance on Obama have become disenchanted and are now voting against him. Pollsters, however, are still basing their models too much on old turnout. (Some Republicans also claim they've seen the early voting numbers which confirm their claims, though I'd like to know where they get their data since no one else seems to agree.)
There is some truth to all this. I can tell you right now Obama won't win as overwhelmingly as he did against McCain. But you've got to look at the numbers. Pollsters are aware of the general situation and aren't trying to get it wrong. If the majority of polls show Obama taking a state by a solid margin, the odds are pretty good he will.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:12 AM
15 Comments:
Well, LAGuy, you stick to your guns, and distressingly often you are right.
Nevertheless, I say Romney takes Ohio by 3, and I'm worried I'm too low.
SWMBCg, etc.
Polls can be wrong and some people make a sport of lying to them (guilty). Also Ohio has got better at voter fraud after 2 close elections (but this is probably on both sides). That being said- I think it will be a nail biter night with Obama ahead but not comfortably enough to call until the wee small hours of the morning. Obama will probably beat Romney by as many votes as Gore beat Bush but with more electoral votes. Probably close enough to have some pronounced deialism among the Republicans (equivalent to Dem claims about Diebold* in 2004)
What will be interesting will be what is going on with the fiscal cliff approaching- probably take a couple weeks for tempers to cool and then each side will throw positions at each other- prediction- a Mediocre Bargain- Tax cuts extended short term on those under $300K or so and extended for a shorter period and a lesser cut for the plutocrats. Medicare eligibilty moves up to 67 over a 20 year period. And oh yeah Some cuts around defense and social programs (there's burying the lede for you) which means this will need to be dealt with in 2015 again.
* their name is on my ATM and it really sucks with features constantly breaking down & not working from machine to machine.
I think it is obvious that Obama will win a smaller percentage of the vote across the nation in every state. But he won by a lot in 2008, and has to do around 3 to 5 percenatge points worse to lose the election. If you go down the list of states he won by small margins, it's clear he will lose Ind., MO and NC. I think he will lose FL (which he won by 3% in 2008). Ohio is the sticking point. He won it by 4%, and tailored much of his economic policies to keeping Ohio happy. They have a lower unemployment rate, a growing manufacturing sector, and a relatively large minority population in several big cities. It's likely Obama's vote percentage will not drop more than 3%, and that makes it really hard for Romney to win the Electoral College.
Oddly, I'm pretty sure Romney will win Colorado, though Obama won it by 9 points in 2008. This is because Colorado went mostly Democrat in 2010, and has a pent up Republican swing. But that won't help unless Romney picks off two other major states (VA Obama won by 7, PA Obama won by 9, MN Obama won by 10, and WI Obama won by 14). So these are long shots if he can't swing Ohio by more than 3%.
So my final pick is Obama 276, Romney 262. This includes giving Romney NH, which doesn't help the cause, and VA which I think might just squeak through.
I'll post a Senate and House predciction later.
Denver Guy: Better put up your other predictions soon or they'll be postdictions. As far as VA, if Romney doesn't "squeak through" there it's over.
Anon: Polls can be wrong for a number of reasons, but when you get hundreds of them telling you the same thing, there aren't too many ways they can all be wrong.
SWMBCg: I'm not "sticking to my guns," jut giving clear-eyed analysis. To much that passes for analysis these days is boosterism. If you've got a reason to expect Ohio going to Romney that's more than a hunch, I'd love to hear it.
Not so sure how clear my eyes are, but for me tomorrow is shaping up as anything from an Obama squeaker to a Romney blow-out, with lots of possible scenarios in between.
Either way, it's close enough to keep me tuned in.
I think this election is personal enough with some of the pollsters (not to mention pundits) that they're willing to risk damaging their reputations in order to try to predict/advocate an Obama victory. Their cover will be that they used historically valid statistical models in their predictions.
But I believe the independent vote has moved away from Obama and that, coupled with a huge Republican turnout tomorrow (ala 2002 and 2010) will make the difference.
Right now, the thing I'm most unhappy about is that I don't live in Massachusetts so I can't vote against Granny Warren.
I was amazed to hear political ads after moving to DC, but then I realized that even though DC and Maryland are safe blue states, Virginia is a purple state. Of course, the counties near me are blue, but when it's a swing state, you advertize all over the state, not just in the purple counties -- because every vote does count.
I have long supported the electoral college, and I very much don't want a simple national popular vote for president. But any regulatory system, once it's around long enough, can be played. And the fact that the candidates are ignoring 40 of 50 states is a very bad thing.
The worst thing about elections is that it causes people you respect to do awful things. Check out the really lame lyrics that Bruce just wrote.
Its more fun to vote against posterboy Scott Brown.
No. Much more fun to see "Faucahontas" try to explain her Indian heritage.
Okay, here's my Senate prediction.
In the Senate, 51 D to 49 R (2 Indies). That's R+2.
AZ - Flake (R) wins over Carmora (D)
CT - Murphy (D) beats McMahon (R) on Obama coattails
FL - Nelson (D) incumbent wins over Mack (R)
IN - Mourdock (R) wins on Romney coattails
MA - Brown (R) loses to Warren (D) because it's Mass.
MO - Akin (R) loses and is drummed out of the party
MT - Rehberg (R) just ekes out a win over incumbent Tester (D)
NB - Fisher (R) beats retread Kerrey (D)
NV - Heller (R) beats Berkley (D) with bunch of ticket splitters
ND - Berg (R) beats Heitkamp (D)
OH - Brown (D) beats terrible candidate Mandel (R)
PA - Casey (D) fends off last minute challenge from Smith (R)
VA - Kaine (D) beats Allen (R) but it's pretty close
and the fun one -
WI - Tommy Thompson (R - who names their kid that?) beats Tammy Baldwin just to show Walker wasn't a fluke.
On the House side - I only really follow Colorado. Prediction - no change - all incumbents win.
LAGuy, it's still worth watching. Nate Silver's final prediction gives Romney a 13.7% chance of winning, which is almost one in seven.
That's equivalent to a football game where there are approximately two minutes left, and Blue is ahead by 3 points. The odds are definitely in Blue's favor, but I wouldn't turn off the television set.
I'm not exactly sure what a hunch is, but how could you accept anything other than your own CEA?
Sort of by definition anything I can offer will be BEA.
SWMBCg, etc.
Obviously Romney has a chance, but not so long ago he had a pretty good chance. That would have made for an exciting evening. But once the odds drop below one in five, it doesn't seem like much of a contest.
When I watched the World Series (which the Giants took 4 to nothing against the Tigers), I recognized it got less and less likely the Tigers would prevail after each game. A couple weeks ago, the odds against Romney (if he represents the Tigers) were as if the Giants had taken the first game. Now, the odds are as if the Giants have taken the first two games. (With McCain, it was as if the Giants had taken the first three games.) You still watch, of course, but it's hard to get excited when you realize the odds.
Right now the best "argument" for Romney may be that a rising tide lifts all boats. If the polls are off, they may be off consistently, so rather than each state having its own rules, Romney will do better than expected everywhere, which will be big enough for him to take it. We'll see.
Actually, Lie-awatha was the Howie Carr of the Boston Herald's phrase for those who read the paper while their lips move.
Interestingly, Brown's late ads have been the following (these are actual)
-Hey- I'm pro-abortion rights
-I was voted the 2d Most Bipartisan Senator
-"Vote the Person not the Party" with a "Rocky"-like cresting theme in the background.
Actually if he had taken this pose earlier on instead of the indian attacks on Warren (who would be a much finer crusading Wall Street regulator than a stump politician), which just seemed stupid and appealing to baser instincts, he might be ahead. Actually if he ran as an I rather than a R, he'd be walking away with it.
In the words of Al Davis "Just win, baby."
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