Saturday, June 01, 2013

Cool

Good news on the climate front. It appears very possible that global warming is proceeding more slowly than expected. In the last decade, the increase has slowed compared to the late 20th century.

It's always been an open question as to how the weather was changing--at the higher or lower ends of predictions.  One question is how much effect do natural cycles play?  Regarding the big picture, the Earth's atmosphere is a huge, complex system, and the accuracy of scientists' hyphotheses has always been related to how sensitive it is to changes in CO2, which no one is entirely sure of.

So if this trend continues, we can breathe a little easier. We may have a bit more time to face down whatever is coming.  The only negative side is all those people who have been saying for over a decade "we've got ten years" to do exactly what they demand or the Earth is finished, can now start up again, saying "congratulations, you've got a second chance to do everything we demand."

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Miss the Tobacco Institute days?

10:41 AM, June 01, 2013  
Blogger LAGuy said...

Are we blaming tobacco for global warming now?

10:52 AM, June 01, 2013  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

It's pretty clear that the momentum for expending huge somes of cash and reducing energy production efficiency has died down to a low simmer. With this year starting out quite cold, and no appreciable increase in temps for 12 or more years, nothing is going to happen anytime soon. I believe all this has happened even as the sun is about to reach solar maximum in its 11 year cyle too.

If it turns out that the fraction of the fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere atributable to human burning of fossil fuels starts the global temp. climbing again, by the time anyone might be willing to do something about it, fossil fuels will likely be on the downswing in usage because they will be running out anyway.

8:13 AM, June 03, 2013  
Blogger LAGuy said...

I think the reaction of the public is only partly tied to changes in climate (which aren't always that easy to notice on a personal scale). In general, people want to do something, but when they find out about the massive potential costs enacting the more ambitious plans would entail (especially during tough ecnomic times) that's whent hey pull back, and even start believing less in the threat.

9:27 AM, June 03, 2013  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

This may be anecdotal, but I notice that people really chafe against reacting to emergencies they can't see or feel. Here in Colo, we had a dry winter, but a record wet Spring (with snow in the mountains as recently as last weekend). As a result, our reservoirs are down, at about 80-85% of normal capacity, and while it's not a critical emergency, the water authorities have imposed water restrictions (at least until July). People I hear speaking about the restrictions are figuring out ways to elude the restrictions, because they saw lots of snow right into May, and still see a snowpack on the mountains, and want to water their gardens. Now, if fires break out (like in CA), people will more willingly cut back, but there is little trust that "authorities" of any type really know what they are talking about.

P.S. I, however, have set my sprinklers to every 3rd day,

1:35 PM, June 03, 2013  
Blogger LAGuy said...

There are always weather anomalies. Everyone's lived through hots spells and cold spells and bad storms, etc. Without a theory behind it, people would just say How do you like this weather? It's the explanation behind it that makes them want to take action.

However, the public in general would like to do something about lots of generalized threats. But then you tell them "okay, but it's gonna cost you" and suddenly the problem doesn't seem to bad any more.

1:51 PM, June 03, 2013  

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