Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Predictions from 2014

Looking back at the predictions I made about 2014, I don't think I can say I scored too well.

Let's go over them and see.

Domestic Politics:

I was right, Congress did not pass significant immigration reform.

Also, there was no federal government shutdown.

I was right that the Supreme Court would uphold Michigan's law that prohibits race-conscious admissions, and strike down campaign finance limits on First Amendment grounds.  I was also correct that no new Justice would be seated.

For that matter, I called it that Mitch McConnell would be reelected--hardly guaranteed a year ago.

I'm not sure I was right that no new name has risen in the Democratic party to challenge Hillary Clinton--not with Elizabeth Warren (what is wrong with the Democrats?) being bruited about.

But all the accuracy is for naught, because I missed the biggest story of all.  I predicted the Republicans would not take back the Senate, which they did with room to spare.  I based it not on polls, which don't count for much 10 months before the election, but on their weak performance in the past two elections.  But past performance does not guarantee future results.

(Also, while I don't claim to be clairvoyant, I didn't even hint at the U.S. ending the Cuban embargo.)

International Politics:

Did Assad solidify his power in Syria?  I'm not sure how you measure that, and I'm not sure how Isis figures in.

I was right that Snowden didn't come back to the U.S., and that Iran didn't announce they had a nuclear weapon.

As for a major terrorist event in Europe, I'd say I got that wrong.  There were events, but I don't think they'd fit my description of major.

The Economy:

I said by year's end unemployment would be in the mid-6's.  As of this writing, it's actually in the high 5's (high five!), I believe, so I missed that.

I said the Dow would be over 17000. It's been up and down, but I called that. Maybe I should have said over 17500, or 18000.


I said Florida State would beat Auburn in a closely-fought BCS bowl.  I sure called that one. Early on it looked like Auburn might run away with it, but it turned into a seesaw and Florida State won 34-31.

I said the Detroit Tigers wouldn't make the playoffs, but, in fact, they won their division.  Though they were out of the playoffs so quickly it would be easy to forget they were in them.

I said the Michigan Wolverines would have a winning record in football.  Right now, the less said about this team, the better.

I said the Seahawks would not win the Super Bowl. They did more than win it. It was a huge blowout.

Popular Culture:

I said it would be Community's farewell.  I think I'm right in that NBC canceled it, even if they were picked up by Hulu Plus. I said they'd go out on top, comedically speaking.  I don't know.  Season five was a clear improvement over season four, and at its best was as good as ever, but it didn't really match the first three seasons. I think the new concept, no Chevy Chase and less Donald Glover made a difference.

I said there'd be renewed interest in Mad Men. I think I was wrong.  I think it's stuck around too long and, if anything, the audience is annoyed at splitting apart its final season.

I called it on King Joffrey not living through the season.  In fact, Game Of Thrones took him out pretty early.

As for the Oscars, I knew I was picking some long (or longer, anyway) shots and I paid for it.  I got the Best Picture wrong (in fact, American Hustle didn't win a single award), the Best Actor wrong and the Best Supporting Actress wrong.  But I did get Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor.


Blogger LAGuy said...

It's the 7th of January 2015, and we've now had what I consider a major enough terrorist attack in Europe, so I'm going to be charitable and give this one to myself.

8:15 AM, January 07, 2015  

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