Wednesday, January 21, 2015


You constantly see pointless statistics when journalists are trying to discuss a trend. I usually ignore them, but I found this one in Variety pretty entertaining.

The article discusses the chances of Bradley Cooper winning a Best Actor Oscar.  Michael Keaton is considered the frontrunner, with Eddie Redmayne--who got to portray a wasting disease--as the closest competitor.  But with American Sniper going through the roof, some wonder if Cooper might not be the hot new voting trend.

It's possible.  The Academy certainly seems to like him, as this is his third acting nomination in three years.  But look how writer Ramin Setoodeh tries to stretch this fact into something deeper:

Of the 20 other actors who have ever received three consecutive (or more) Oscar nominations, 60% won a statue in the first three years. Two of the actors, Marlon Brando (1954’s “On the Waterfront”) and Elizabeth Taylor (1960’s “Butterfield 8”), won their Oscar on their fourth consecutive nomination. The last actor before Cooper to Oscar three-peat was Renee Zellweger (2001’s “Bridget Jones’ Diary,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2003’s “Cold Mountain”), who won on her third try. It’s hard for voters to keep voting against an actor everybody in Hollywood finds so likeable.

Hmm.  So 60% of actors win an Oscar in one of their first three consecutive nominations.  Now how many are nominated in these categories again?  Oh yeah, five.  So you get three chance to beat five people, and win three out of five times.  Now there's a trend that tells you something.


Blogger ColumbusGuy said...

I see your 60 percent and raise you this: "Romney's speaking fee at public university is $50,000, far less than Clinton's..."

Now that's a number that tells you something. Next they'll report whether he has any commissions.

3:19 AM, January 21, 2015  

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